Dow Jones index achieves the best two-year gain, small-cap index rises nearly 6%, bank index surges over 10%, oil, steel, and crypto stocks soar. European and American photovoltaic stocks suffer across the board, Trump's media technology rises nearly 35% before closing up about 6%, Tesla surges nearly 15% to a two-year high, Qualcomm post-market trading gains 10%. China concept stocks narrow their decline, Nio Inc. and Zeekr drop over 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 20 basis point high nearing 4.48%, the U.S. dollar index, breaking through 105 with a 1.7% increase, hits a four-month high, Bitcoin rises 9% nearing $0.076 million, offshore RMB drops below 7.20, hitting a three-month low, euro and yen both briefly drop 2%. Gold drops over 3%, London copper drops over 4%.
On Wednesday, November 6, Trump announces victory. The 'Trump trade' erupts, supporting record highs for the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow. Dow surges over 1550 points, Russell small-cap index leads with a rise of over 5.8%. Tesla jumps nearly 15%, Trump's media technology surges over 34.8% but retraces most gains, 'Bitcoin whale' Micetong Investment closes up by 13.17%, Trump's victory anticipates regulatory easing by U.S. regulators, Wall Street financial giants strengthen collectively, Philadelphia Bank Index closes up over 10%. Trump's policy may benefit fossil fuels, energy stocks rise collectively, photovoltaic stocks suffer across the board, Sunrun drops by 29.63%. Prison stocks surge, GEO Group Inc. rises by 42.1%:
U.S. three major indices all rise. S&P 500 index closes up 146.28 points, up 2.53%, at 5929.04 points. Dow, closely related to economic cycles, closes up 1508.05 points, up 3.57%, at 43729.93 points. Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, closes up 544.29 points, up 2.95%, at 18983.47 points. Nasdaq 100 index rises by 2.74%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap-weighted Index (NDXTMC), which reflects the performance of tech components in the Nasdaq 100, closes up by 2.65%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to economic cycles, closes up by 5.84%. The VIX fear index drops by 20.11%, at 16.37.
U.S. industry ETFs close mostly higher. Regional bank ETF rises over 13%, banking ETF rises nearly 12%, financial ETF surges over 6%, air travel ETF jumps over 5%, energy ETF, consumer discretionary ETF, and internet index ETF all rise at least 3%, science and semiconductor ETFs rise at least 2.5%. Meanwhile, consumer goods ETF and utilities ETF both drop over 1%.
Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index rise. Financials close up 6.16%, industrial, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors rise by over 3.5%, technology sector closes up by 2.52%, telecom sector rises by about 2.4%, consumer staples sector drops nearly 1.6%, real estate sector drops over 2.6%.
From the research strategy perspective: Vincent Juvyns, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes that post Trump's election victory, U.S. stock market performance will shift from tech and blue-chip stocks to other sectors, especially small-cap stocks. Trump's proposed tax cuts and fiscal measures might benefit a wide range of industries and domestic companies, boosting mid-cap companies.
"Tech Seven Sisters" mostly rose. Tesla closed up 14.75%, Google A rose by 3.99%, NVIDIA rose by 4.07%, Microsoft rose by 2.12%, Amazon rose by 3.8%, reaching a new all-time high during trading. Apple closed down 0.33%. Meta closed down 0.07%.
Most chip stocks trended higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 3.12%. The SOXX industry ETF rose by 2.92%. The NVIDIA leveraged ETF doubled and rose by 8.08%. AMD rose by 2.43%, Broadcom rose by 3.25%, ON Semiconductor rose by 2.95%. ASML Holding rose by 2.87%, Micron Technology rose by 6.01%, Intel rose by 7.42%. Qualcomm rose by 4.27%, with a strong third-quarter report and bullish outlook for the fourth quarter driven by robust smartphone demand, surging more than 12% after hours. ASML ADR fell by 2.22%. Taiwan Semiconductor ADR fell by 1.3%, KLA Corp fell by 0.1%.
AI concept stocks mostly rose. Super Micro Computer fell by 18.05%, lower than estimated third-quarter sales and fourth-quarter sales guidance, Barclays lowered Super Micro Computer's target price from $42 to $25, JPMorgan downgraded the rating to "shareholding" with a target price of $23. Loop Capital lowered the target price from $100 to $35. BigBear.ai fell by 9.66%, Palantir rose by 8.61%. Dell Technologies rose by 3.66%. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by NVIDIA, rose by 5.96%, CrowdStrike rose by 4.04%, C3.ai rose by 4.17%, Snowflake rose by 4.22%, Oracle rose by 5.51%, BullFrog AI rose by 8.19%, Serve Robotics rose by 2.85%.
Chinese concept stocks generally fell. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.83%. In the ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 2.11%. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 2.01%. The FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 8.73%. The FTSE A50 futures continued their night trading session with a 0.32% decrease, closing at 13,551.000 points.
Among popular Chinese concept stocks, the new energy vehicle companies collectively declined, with XPeng Motors falling by 3.98%, developing the Ultra vehicle model for Robotaxi services, naming the fourth-generation robot Iron. Zeekr fell by 5.97%, Li Auto fell by 3.25%, NIO fell by 5.3%. Photovoltaic stocks generally fell, Daqo New Energy fell by 8.11%, Canadian Solar fell by 19.9%, JinkoSolar fell by 14.31%. Fangdd Network fell by 7.38%, Trip.com fell by 1.99%, Alibaba fell by 2.5%, Baidu fell by 1.04%, Bilibili fell by 4.57%, NetEase fell by 0.22%, JD.com fell by 3.4%, New Oriental fell by 2.93%, Pinduoduo fell by 1.29%.
Investors speculated that Trump's presidency would benefit fossil fuels, leading to a general rise in energy stocks. Baker Hughes rose by 10.78%, EQT Resources rose by 7.56%, KMI rose by 6.64%, Chevron rose by 2.81%, Exxon Mobil rose by 1.71%.
Photovoltaic stocks in the US stock market plummeted across the board at the beginning of the trading session. Sunrun fell 29.63%, Array fell 21.94%, Enphase Energy, a photovoltaic inverter supplier, fell 16.82%, and First Solar fell 10.13%.
The strength of cryptocurrencies led to a general rise in blockchain concept stocks. Coinbase rose by 31.11%, Cipher Mining surged over 31%, Riot Platforms rose more than 26.1%, the double-long Bitcoin ETF surged over 19.7%, Robinhood rose over 19.6%, 'Big Bitcoin Holders' MicroStrategy rose by approximately 13.2%, Canaan ADR rose by approximately 13%, Ethereum ETF ETHV rose over 11.4%, and Bitcoin ETF BITB rose by approximately 9.9%.
Investors' anticipation of a Trump victory led to expectations of regulatory easing by US regulatory authorities, driving the Philadelphia Bank Index to soar over 10%. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index closed up 10.69% at 134.94 points. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Bank Index closed up 13.47% at 133.26 points. Among major Wall Street banks, Wells Fargo rose by 13.11%, Morgan Stanley rose by 11.61%, Goldman Sachs rose by 13.1%, Citigroup rose by 8.42%, JPMorgan Chase rose by 11.54%, and Bank of America rose by 8.43%.
Other key stocks: (1) Trump Media & Technology (DJT) initially rose over 34.8% and then closed up by 5.94%. (2) Novo Nordisk ADR fell by 4.33%, with a 21% year-on-year growth in Q3 net income, and Wegovy's revenue surged by 79%. (3) Pharmacy chain CVS rose by 11.33%, exceeding expectations for third-quarter net income. (4) Prison stocks CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) rose by 28.98%, and The GEO Group Inc. surged by 42.1%.
Trump's election win led to European stocks giving back previous gains and closing lower, with most sectors ending in declines after fluctuating between gains and losses. Market concerns about Trump's tariff plan being implemented sent European automotive stocks into a general decline: BMW fell by 6.58%, Mercedes-Benz Group dropped 6.44%, Volkswagen declined by 4.27%, and Stellantis rose by 1.75% but announced layoffs exceeding 1000 people. European renewable energy stocks fell over 10% due to fears about the Trump administration possibly pausing approval for new projects, with Vestas Wind Systems falling by 12.82%, and Orsted dropping by 12.79%.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.54%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down by 1.43%. The FTSE All-World 300 Index closed down by 0.47%. BMW fell by 6.58%, with third-quarter automotive sector revenue at 27.85 billion euros, a 13% year-on-year decrease, bringing the company's profit margin to the lowest level in four years.
Germany's DAX 30 index fell by 1.13%. France's CAC 40 index fell by 0.51%. The Netherlands AEX index fell by 0.83%. Italy's FTSE MIB index fell by 1.54%. The UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.07%. Spain's IBEX 35 index fell by 2.9%.
On the day after the U.S. presidential election, the U.S. dollar index rose by over 1.6%, surpassing 105. The Japanese yen fell by over 1.9%, approaching 155, while the offshore renminbi fell by over a thousand points, dropping below 7.2 yuan for the first time in over three months. The euro fell by over 1.8%, heading towards its worst day in over four years. Bitcoin futures surpassed $7.7 during trading, hitting a historical record high.
U.S. Dollar: DXY dollar index rose by 1.66% at the close, reaching 105.137 points, crossing above the 200-day moving average (the current technical indicator is at 103.849), trading in an upward trend throughout the day, with an intraday range of 104.043-105.441 points, nearing the high of June 26th at 106.130. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 1.26%, reaching 1269.90 points.
Non-U.S. Currency: Euro against the dollar fell by 1.84%, at 1.0729, British pound against the dollar fell by 1.23%, at 1.2883, U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc rose by 1.49%, at 0.8762. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar against the dollar fell by 1.01%, New Zealand dollar against the dollar fell by 1.08%, U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar rose by 0.86%. Swedish Krona against the dollar fell by 1.47%, Norwegian Krone against the dollar fell by 1.04%.
Japanese Yen: The yen against the dollar fell by 1.95% at the close, at 154.58 yen. Wells Fargo noted that if U.S. yields continue to rise, the yen-dollar exchange rate may fall below 155, possibly even touching a low of 161.95. In response, the Bank of Japan may signal or raise interest rates prematurely.
Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi against the dollar fell by 1019 points at the close, at 7.2036 yuan, trading within the range of 7.0906-7.2096 yuan throughout the day, nearing the low of August 2nd at 7.2521 yuan.
Cryptocurrencies: The largest leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin futures, rose by 9.63% at the end of the day, reaching $76,585.00, and briefly rose to $77,140.00 at 04:59 Beijing time, hitting a new all-time high. Spot bitcoin has risen by over 9.7% in the last 24 hours, reaching a historical high of $76,475.38 at 04:54. The second largest ethereum futures rose by 11.11%, reaching $2,711.00, and briefly rose to $2,730.50 at 05:17 Beijing time.
US EIA crude oil supply hits a new high since August, with a strong dollar putting pressure on oil prices. After falling by over 3%, US oil narrowed its decline to over 0.4%.
US Oil: WTI December crude oil futures fell by $0.30, a decrease of nearly 0.42%, to $71.69 per barrel. US oil continued its earlier decline, hitting a pre-market low of over 3.1% at $69.74, then quickly rebounding. US stocks rose nearly 0.9% to break through $72.60 in early trading.
Brent Crude Oil: Brent January crude oil futures fell by $0.61, a decline of about 0.81%, to $74.92 per barrel. Brent oil continued its earlier decline, with a pre-market low of nearly 2.9% near $73.30 before quickly rebounding. US stocks rose nearly 0.6% to approach $76 in early trading.
On the news front, Citigroup believes that Trump's victory in the US election would be bearish for oil price trends. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows that US crude oil supply has reached a new high since August, with US EIA crude oil inventories increasing by 2.149 million barrels last week, higher than analysts' expectations of 1.35 million barrels, following a decrease of 0.515 million barrels the previous week.
Natural Gas: US December natural gas futures rose by 2.88%, to $2.7470 per million British thermal units. The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose by 0.25%, to 40.500 euros per megawatt hour. ICE UK natural gas futures fell by 0.33%, to 102.350 pence per therm.
Market expectations that Trump's victory will boost the strong US dollar to a four-month high, coupled with the possibility of high tariffs raising inflation and causing the Fed's interest rate cut pace to stall, both factors are exerting pressure on gold, leading to the biggest single-day drop in five months with a decline of over 3%, falling below $2660 to a three-week low. Silver in spot trading also experienced a significant drop of nearly 5.6% to more than a three-week low:
Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell 2.97% to $2668.00 per ounce at the close, continuing to move away from the historical high of $2801.80 on October 30. Spot gold remained bearish throughout the day, hitting a low of over 3.3% below $2650 before the US stock market opened, the first time since October 16, closing down 3.09% at $2659.06 per ounce, falling back more than 4.57% from a high of $2790.10 on October 31, a historical high.
Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell 4.59% to $31.270 per ounce at the close. Spot silver remained bearish throughout the day, hitting a low of nearly 5.6% below $30.80 before the US stock market opened, the first time since October 15, closing down 4.53% at $31.1778 per ounce.
In London industrial metals, copper and zinc both closed down over 4%, while tin also dropped over 3%: copper fell by $396, a decrease of more than 4.06%, to $9343 per ton. COMEX copper futures fell by 5.28% to $4.2387 per pound. Aluminum in London closed down by $44 to $2616 per ton. Zinc in London fell by $130, a drop of approximately 4.19%, to $2973 per ton. Lead in London rose by $20 to $2048 per ton. Nickel in London rose by $4 to $16127 per ton. Tin in London fell by $1002, a drop of approximately 3.10%, to $31347 per ton. Cobalt in London remained flat at $24300 per ton.
Editor/Lambor
