2024 OUTLOOK
The Company has maintained its previous midpoint full year comparable hotel guidance, which assumes a continued recovery in Maui and steady demand trends in the fourth quarter, despite the impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Operating profit margin and comparable hotel EBITDA margins in 2024 are expected to decline compared to 2023, impacted by the Maui wildfires and continued growth in wages, real estate taxes and insurance.
The Company's full year forecast comparable hotel set now includes the operations of The Ritz-Carlton O'ahu, Turtle Bay and 1 Hotel Central Park properties that were acquired in July 2024, and excludes The Don CeSar, which closed on September 25, 2024, as described above. The estimated impact to net income and Adjusted EBITDAre from the loss of business due to the hurricanes for 2024 is approximately $15 million.
The impact from Maui operations is expected to be an approximate decline of 150 basis points in RevPAR and 110 basis points in Total RevPAR. When combined with the expected pre-wildfire Maui contribution, the total impact is estimated to be 220 basis points and 180 basis points, respectively. Net of the benefit of the business interruption gains relating to the wildfires received earlier this year, the year-over-year impact from Maui on net income and Adjusted EBITDAre for full year is expected to be a decline of $25 million, and on margins is expected to be a decline of approximately 20 basis points.
The Company anticipates its 2024 operating results as compared to 2023 will be approximately as follows:
| Current Full Year 2024 Guidance | Current Full Year 2024 Guidance Change vs. 2023 | Previous Full Year 2024 Guidance Midpoint Change vs. 2023 | Change in Full Year 2024 Guidance | |
| Comparable hotel Total RevPAR | $353 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0 bps |
| Comparable hotel RevPAR | $215 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 bps |
| Total revenues under GAAP (in millions) | $5,637 | 6.1% | 6.8% | (70) bps |
| Operating profit margin under GAAP | 15.2% | (40) bps | 0 bps | (40) bps |
| Comparable hotel EBITDA margin | 29.0% | (90) bps | (90) bps | 0 bps |
Based upon the above parameters, the Company estimates its 2024 guidance will be approximately as follows:
| Current Full Year 2024 Guidance | Previous Full Year 2024 Guidance Midpoint | Change in Full Year 2024 Guidance | |
| Net income (in millions) | $687 | $712 | $(25) |
| Adjusted EBITDAre (in millions) | $1,630 | $1,645 | $(15) |
| Diluted earnings per common share | $0.96 | $0.99 | $(0.03) |
| NAREIT and Adjusted FFO per diluted share | $1.92 | $1.94 | $(0.02) |
See the 2024 Forecast Schedules and the Notes to Financial Information for items that may affect forecast results.
