Central banks start cutting interest rates

Election dust settles! Wall Street reduces bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, increasing bets on rate cuts by the european Central Bank.

美国总统选举结果揭晓后，摩根大通、野村等华尔街大行下调了对美联储明年降息的押注，与此同时，基于对经济的负面冲击，高盛提高了对欧洲央行未来降息的预期。市场也持类似观点。周三，美债收益率全线飙升。

美国总统选举结果揭晓，共和党候选人特朗普当选。一些华尔街大行下调了对美联储明年降息的押注，与此同时，提高了对欧洲央行未来降息的押注。市场也持类似观点，交易员们削减了对美联储明年降息的押注，到明年9月的累计降息幅度预期为100个基点，提高了对欧洲央行降息的押注，到12月的累计降息幅度预期为30个基点。

摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli调整了对美联储利率路径的预测，在周三的报告中写道，美联储可能本月和12月会议均降息25个基点，然后从明年3月开始按季度降息，也即一个季度仅降息一次，直到联邦基金利率达到3.5%。

摩根大通认为，特朗普重塑美联储的能力可能只会随着时间的推移慢慢实现。

此前，Feroli的同事、摩根大通的另一位分析师David Kelly表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在12月暂停其宽松周期。理由是，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降。

高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius表示，高盛可能会将2025年底的核心PCE通胀率预测从2%上调至2.3%左右，但可能不会对2025年美国GDP增长2.5%的预测做出重大调整。高盛尚未对美联储宽松政策预测做出任何调整，但指出，风险在于美联储未来可能会选择放慢降息的速度。

野村的David Seif等经济学家们继续预测美联储今年还会实施两次25个基点的降息。不过，他们对美联储明年降息的预期相当悲观，最新预计明年只会有一次降息，这远低于他们此前预计的明年会降息四次。野村将美联储降息的终端利率预测上调50个基点，至3.625%。

野村认为，特朗普将兑现其提高关税的竞选提议，短期内将显著推高通胀并导致经济增长适度放缓。

特朗普宣布胜选后，有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos称，特朗普当选目前还不会影响美联储对货币政策的立场。考虑到美联储本周降息25个基点几乎“板上钉钉”，市场的关注焦点转向：在实现美国经济软着陆之前，美联储还需要降息多少次？

高盛以Sven Jari Stehn为首的经济学家们预计，欧洲央行在特朗普胜选后将加大降息幅度。

高盛预计，欧元区实际GDP将受到0.5%的冲击，德国的冲击为0.6%，意大利的冲击为0.3%。基于对经济的负面影响，高盛预计这将导致欧洲央行在明年7月额外降息25个基点。高盛最新预计欧元区的存款利率将达到1.75%，与之相比，欧洲央行当前的存款利率为3.25%。

高盛分析师还预计，瑞士央行和瑞典央行将额外降息25个基点。高盛对英国央行和挪威央行的利率预测保持不变。高盛预计，英国实际GDP将受到0.4%的冲击。

周三，美债收益率全线飙涨。纽约尾盘，两年期美债收益率涨8.94个基点，报4.2659%；美国10年期基准国债收益率上涨15.48个基点，报4.4256%；30年期美债收益率涨17.05个基点。

编辑/lambor

After the results of the USA presidential election were announced, jpmorgan, Nomura, and other Wall Street giants reduced their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates next year. At the same time, based on the negative impact on the economy, Goldman Sachs raised expectations for future interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The market also holds a similar view. On Wednesday, US bond yields surged across the board.

The results of the US presidential election were announced, and the Republican candidate Donald Trump was elected. Some Wall Street big banks have reduced their bets on the Fed cutting rates next year, while at the same time, they have increased their bets on the ECB cutting rates in the future. The market also holds similar views, as traders have cut back on their bets for Fed rate cuts next year, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by September next year, and have increased their bets on ECB rate cuts, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 30 basis points by December.

JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli adjusted his forecast for the Fed's interest rate path, writing in a report on Wednesday that the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points at both this month's and December's meetings, and then start cutting rates quarterly from March next year, i.e., only once per quarter, until the federal funds rate reaches 3.5%.

JPMorgan believes that Trump's ability to reshape the Fed may only slowly materialize over time.

Previously, Feroli's colleague and another analyst at JPMorgan, David Kelly, stated that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Fed may earliest pause its easing cycle in December. The reason is that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rate cuts.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that Goldman may raise its forecast for the core PCE inflation rate at the end of 2025 from around 2% to 2.3%, but may not make significant adjustments to its forecast of 2.5% GDP growth in 2025. Goldman has not made any adjustments to its forecast of Fed's accommodative policy, but pointed out that the risk lies in the Fed possibly choosing to slow down the pace of rate cuts in the future.

Nomura's David Seif and other economists continue to predict that the Fed will cut rates twice by 25 basis points this year. However, their expectations for Fed rate cuts next year are quite pessimistic, with the latest forecast suggesting only one cut next year, far below their previous expectation of four cuts next year. Nomura has raised its terminal rate forecast for Fed rate cuts by 50 basis points to 3.625%.

Nomura believes that Trump will fulfill his campaign proposal to raise tariffs, which will significantly boost inflation in the short term and lead to a moderate slowdown in economic growth.

After Trump announced his victory, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, also known as the 'New Fed Communications Agency', stated that Trump's election will not currently affect the Fed's monetary policy stance. With the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut this week almost a certainty, the market's focus has shifted to: achieving economic growth in the United States.But after the bursting of the internet bubble and the Fed's rate cut in 2001, the ROI dropped by more than 10%.Before this, how many more rate cuts does the Fed need?

Goldman Sachs economists led by Sven Jari Stehn predict that the European Central Bank will intensify rate cuts after Trump's victory.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the actual GDP of the Eurozone will be impacted by 0.5%, Germany by 0.6%, and Italy by 0.3%. Based on the negative impact on the economy, Goldman Sachs expects this to lead the European Central Bank to make an additional 25 basis point rate cut in July next year. Goldman Sachs' latest forecast predicts that the Eurozone deposit rate will reach 1.75%, compared to the European Central Bank's current deposit rate of 3.25%.

Goldman Sachs analysts also predict that the Swiss National Bank and the Swedish National Bank will make an additional 25 basis point rate cut. Goldman Sachs maintains its rate forecasts for the Bank of England and the Norwegian Central Bank. Goldman Sachs predicts that the actual GDP of the United Kingdom will be impacted by 0.4%.

On Wednesday, U.S. bond yields surged across the board. At the New York session close, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8.94 basis points to 4.2659%; the yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note rose by 15.48 basis points to 4.4256%; and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 17.05 basis points.

Editor/Lambor

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Central banks start cutting interest rates

大选尘埃落定！华尔街削减对美联储明年降息的押注，加大对欧洲央行降息的押注

Election dust settles! Wall Street reduces bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, increasing bets on rate cuts by the european Central Bank.

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