It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But when the market is down, you're bound to have some losers. The Trinity Capital Inc. (NASDAQ:TRIN) is down 22% over three years, but the total shareholder return is 21% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market return of 17%.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Trinity Capital saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 26% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 8% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Trinity Capital, it has a TSR of 21% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Trinity Capital shareholders are up 7.3% for the year (even including dividends). While you don't go broke making a profit, this return was actually lower than the average market return of about 34%. On the bright side that gain is actually better than the average return of 7% over the last three years, implying that the company is doing better recently. If the share price is up as a result of improved business performance, then this kind of improvement may be sustained. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Trinity Capital better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Trinity Capital has 4 warning signs (and 3 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
Trinity Capital is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
