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特朗普胜选市场波动加剧 港股放量博弈进入变盘窗口|港股风向标

Market volatility intensifies as Trump wins election. Hong Kong stocks traded heavily as the game enters a turning point window. | Hong Kong stock indicator.

cls.cn ·  Nov 6 21:34

①With Trump's victory in the election, market volatility intensifies, which industries are expected to benefit? ②As Hong Kong stocks see increased trading volume, entering a turning point, which trading signals are worth paying attention to?

On November 6, Caixin News (Editor Feng Yi) reported that all three major indices in Hong Kong closed down, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 2.23% and 2.56% respectively, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 2.54%.

Let's look at today's market hotspots: The disruptions from the US election affecting Hong Kong stocks, with internal funds engaging in a renewed chess game mentality; Trump's declared victory leading to intensified short-term market volatility; overseas impact, the market focus may return to the domestic.

[Disruptions from the US election affecting Hong Kong stocks, internal funds engaging in a renewed chess game mentality]

On the market today, core technology stocks collectively weakened, JD.com, Alibaba fell by over 4%, Kuaishou dropped by 3.84%, Tencent, Baidu, Meituan, Xiaomi all declined.

In other hot directions, the major financial sector performed poorly, with brokerage shares leading the decline. Education stocks showed a weak trend, with gold, home appliances, photovoltaics, automobiles, shipping, dining, and other popular industries all dropping.

Among the rising sectors, the concept of cryptocurrencies has seen significant gains, while the rare earth metals concept continues to strengthen, with active trading in electric power equipment and oil & gas equipment stocks.

Overall, the US election results are basically settled today, with the process at one point being sticky and also affecting global asset prices, with Hong Kong stocks continuing to be disrupted.

Hang Seng Index traded at 216.818 billion Hong Kong dollars for the whole day today, significantly higher than the previous period, reaching a new high in nearly half a month.

The resurgence in trading activity also indicates a bargaining mentality between bulls and bears after the crucial event of the U.S. election.

Today's total short selling amount is 22.646 billion Hong Kong dollars, with short selling funds accounting for 10.44%, also sharply rising to a two-week high.

Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, and Xiaomi-W are the top three in short selling amounts, with 1.543 billion Hong Kong dollars, 1.468 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 1.009 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively.

Trump's announcement of his election victory has intensified short-term market volatility.

In terms of market trends, due to the wide impact of the U.S. election, major industry sectors generally declined. The market trends of major consumer and finance sectors, which were the main rebound themes, were also affected.

Taking various information into account, Trump has now secured the election victory, and the short-term market may begin to assess the impact of his policy direction. Signs of a resurgence of 'Trump trading' at the close of today are also evident.

Cryptocurrency concept stocks surged against the trend, with Trump having expressed support for digital assets on multiple occasions.

In addition, commodities such as gold and oil have all experienced fluctuations. After Trump announced his victory in the US election, spot gold fell more than 1%. As of press time, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures have also fallen by more than 1%.

Haitong Securities' report stated that overall, Trump's policy agenda focuses on manufacturing, inflation, taxation, trade, immigration, security, environment, and social security.

These include emphasizing the vigorous development of infrastructure construction; advocating for the advancement of artificial intelligence and loose regulation; actively supporting the development of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies; emphasizing the development of traditional energy; and highlighting bringing key industry chains back to the US.

It is worth noting that shortly after the US election, the Fed will also announce its interest rate decision for November this week.

Just after Trump's election announcement, the market has begun to reduce bets on the extent of the Fed's rate cuts. According to CME FEDWATCH, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November is still close to 100%, while the possibility of further rate cuts in December is about 66%, with the index at 77% on Monday.

Impacted by the above news, the foreign exchange market has also begun to fluctuate. The offshore RMB against the US dollar once hit a new low since August 5th, dropping more than 1000 points during the session; the euro against the US dollar fell by more than 2%, marking the largest decline since 2016.

In the short term, under the resonance of multiple heavyweight events, market volatility has significantly intensified, and corresponding risks are worth investors to remain cautious and attentive.

[Overseas impact "shoes dropped" Market focus may return to the domestic market]

On the other hand, with a series of major overseas events unfolding, the focus of the market may also shift back to the domestic perspective.

JPMorgan stated in a report that compared to the U.S. elections, the results of the National People's Congress will become a more important driver for the performance of Chinese financial stocks.

Furthermore, Morgan Stanley's research indicated that in October, the prices of second-hand homes in mainland China slightly increased month-on-month, mainly benefiting from policy relaxation and seasonal factors. With investor confidence rebounding, industry valuations have risen back to historical average levels.

Regarding the core issues of credit bonds and real estate markets that have been of concern previously, industry experts have recently pointed out that a new round of debt replacement may reach 6 trillion to 10 trillion yuan, which has become a key factor influencing market expectations, deserving investors' attention.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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