According to Edison Research Company's prediction, Trump is expected to win the White House, with the US dollar and US stocks considered winners. However, a Republican president may have a negative impact on bonds, emerging markets, clean energy, and sustainable investments.

Here is a specific analysis:

Currency

President Trump is expected to strengthen the US dollar as investors anticipate his policies to result in inflation and economic growth higher than under Harris' administration. This means the Fed will need to maintain high interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating, which will benefit the US dollar.

At the same time, Trump plans to impose tariffs on trade, forcing European allies to pay more for defense and casting doubt on multilateral institutions, which could dampen growth in other regions of the world, thus enhancing the attractiveness of the US dollar. Citigroup analysts predict that the dollar will rise by 3% after Trump's victory.

Analysts expect the euro to plummet significantly. If tariffs and tax cuts follow, the euro-dollar exchange rate may fall below the key level of 1.

Higher US dollar yields will also mean a return of arbitrage trades, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc already being heavily sold off on the eve of the election.

However, analysts believe that the Swiss franc will receive support because the country's high-value export products are exempt from tariffs, and the currency often performs better than others during periods of inflation intensification.

With the Trump administration expected to take a more moderate stance on regulating cryptos, Bitcoin is another potential winner. The world's largest cryptocurrency hit a historical high on Wednesday.

Stocks

Trump's promises to reduce regulations and taxes for large companies, increase oil production, and implement strict immigration policies all indicate enhanced economic growth and inflation, which are seen as favorable for stocks. Industries such as banks, technology, defense, and fossil fuels may benefit.

Goldman Sachs estimates that his plan to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% could increase the returns of the S&P 500 index by about 4%.

Nevertheless, it is unclear whether Trump's tax reduction plan will pass through Congress. Meanwhile, his protectionist policies will increase costs, reduce profitability, and harm multinational corporations.

Outside the United States, a strong dollar, rising US interest rates, and trade tensions imply that defensive industries will outperform, while multinational companies exposed to the US market will be impacted.

Industries affected by tariff changes, such as semiconductors, autos, and clean energy, may experience fluctuations. Prior to the election results, investors have already been selling Japanese stocks, as well as European electric vehicle and chip stocks.

Barclays warns that if trade conflicts erupt again, European profits may see a "high single-digit" percentage decline. The defense industry in Europe may face mixed results, with Trump stating he will end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also emphasizing that European allies need to invest more in defense.

Bonds

Investors are increasingly concerned about the growing scale of U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits, fearing that this could raise borrowing costs or U.S. bond yields.

According to one estimate, Trump's spending plan will increase the deficit by 7.5 trillion U.S. dollars over 10 years, far higher than the figure Harris proposed. In October, as the market expected Trump to win, the likelihood increased, U.S. bond yields rose by nearly 50 basis points.

The inflation pressure brought about by Trump's policies will reduce the Fed's room to cut interest rates, keeping U.S. bond yields at high levels.

A Trump victory could also suppress growth in Europe and Asia, as tariffs and other policies put pressure on these economies. The euro, yen, Swiss franc, and other currencies face greater pressure, higher inflation rates, reducing central banks' room to cut rates when necessary. Analysts expect global yields to rise.

commodity equity index

Trump aims to maximize U.S. oil and gas production by expanding federal leasing and rolling back environmental regulations as much as possible – this policy agenda nearly guarantees the country will remain the world's top oil producer. This ample supply may help to keep WTI crude oil futures prices relatively low, with futures falling by about 4% so far this year.

On the other hand, he may strengthen the enforcement of sanctions on Iran's crude oil, which could reduce global crude oil supply. He also stated that he will fill the strategic crude oil reserves to unprecedented levels, which could provide price support when the government enters the market.

Emerging markets

Even before the election, concerns about Trump's policies had already put pressure on emerging economies. In addition to imposing tariffs on China, Trump also stated that he would impose tariffs of up to 200% on Mexican car imports. Analysts say the Mexican peso may fall below 21 pesos to the dollar, the lowest level in over two years.

Another potential obstacle that emerging markets face is Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance's proposal to impose a 10% tax on remittances, which is important for many Latin American economies.

If tariffs are raised, the South African Rand, the Brazilian Real, and the stock markets of these countries will face risks, as will South Korea and other chip manufacturers.

Selling of US bonds and a rise in the US dollar will also draw funds away from emerging markets, forcing many countries to tighten their monetary policies.

Emerging economies with domestic growth and reform stories, such as India or South Africa, may benefit from this and become safe havens in a turbulent global environment. Copper and lithium-producing country Chile may largely be unaffected as the irreplaceability of their exported commodities is strong.

Green investments

Trump's victory would enable him to fulfill his campaign promises, revoking green regulations restricting oil and gas drilling as well as coal mining, which could potentially drive up stocks in these industries.

Trump also stated that he would 'cancel all unspent funds in the Inflation Reduction Act', a landmark climate law signed by the Biden-Harris administration, including billions of dollars in subsidies for electric cars, solar, and wind energy.

However, measures that could actually lead to a decline in stocks in these industries may require congressional action, with some Republican lawmakers at least expressing support for parts of the legislation.

Trump also vowed to dismiss Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This move would pose setbacks to the ability of U.S. sustainable funds to compel companies to make policy changes and may reduce the attractiveness of these funds. Since 2022, these funds have faced net redemptions as high energy prices have tarnished relative returns.