Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Gentherm Incorporated (NASDAQ:THRM) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 46% in three years, versus a market return of about 17%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$74m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the three years that the share price fell, Gentherm's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 12% each year. The share price decline of 19% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Gentherm has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
A Different Perspective
Gentherm shareholders are down 3.9% for the year, but the market itself is up 34%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.4% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.
But note: Gentherm may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
