Hot news

• In pre-market trading on Wednesday, the three major futures indices all rose, with the Dow futures up more than 3%.

• Trump declares victory! Global financial markets are in turmoil, with the US market all shifting to 'Trump trade'.

Republican presidential candidate Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election in the early hours of the 6th, benefiting concept stocks surged collectively. Among them, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Pre-market skyrocketed nearly 37%, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ rising more than 12%;

Bitcoin once reached a record high of $75,000, and crypto concept stocks surged together, $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ rising more than 12%;

Bank stocks rose, $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ Up nearly 8%, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ Up nearly 7%.

Petroleum stocks mostly strong pre-market. Among them, $Cenovus Energy (CVE.US)$Some rose more than 2%. $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ and $Chevron (CVX.US)$ Up nearly 2%.

• Most growth tech stocks are rising pre-market trading.

• Popular China concept stocks mostly decline pre-market, li auto inc falls nearly 7%, pdd holdings down nearly 6%.

• Tesla surges 12% pre-market, potentially the biggest beneficiary of this election.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Rising over 12% pre-market, investors bet that the company will be a major beneficiary of Trump's second presidency. Tesla CEO Musk can be said to be the most prominent supporter of Trump in this election. He has supported the Republican Party with over $0.13 billion, vigorously supporting the Republican Party and attacking the Democratic Party on his social media network X. Analyst Daniel Ives of Jefferies Financial wrote in a report: 'The biggest bullish for a Trump win will be Tesla and Musk.' He said that if the US reduces tax incentives for electric cars, Tesla will have more competitive advantage over other manufacturers.

• Delisting crisis intensifies! super micro computer Q2 guidance falls short of expectations, annual report release date still uncertain.

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Pre-market trading fell by nearly 16%, with an initial estimate of the company's sales in the third quarter showing a maximum year-on-year growth of 183%, still lower than analysts' expectations; it is expected that sales growth in the fourth quarter will slow to a minimum of 50%, far below analysts' expected growth rate of nearly 86%. Super Micro stated that the independent committee investigation did not find any fraudulent or improper behavior by the company's management and will take all measures to stay listed on the Nasdaq. In addition, the company is unable to predict when it will release the annual report for the previous fiscal year, increasing the risk of delisting.

• Pre-market trading rose by nearly 3%, and Q3 sales revenue of Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy increased by 79% year-on-year, exceeding expectations.

$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$ Pre-market trading rose by nearly 3%, with Q3 net sales of 71.311 billion Danish krone, a 22% year-on-year increase, slightly below the market's expected 72.12 billion Danish krone; net income of 27.301 billion Danish krone, a 21% year-on-year increase, slightly above the market's expected 26.7 billion Danish krone. The bestselling weight loss drug, Wegovy, had Q3 sales of 17.304 billion Danish krone, a 79% year-on-year increase, better than the market's expected 15.6 billion Danish krone. Novo Nordisk expects, based on fixed exchange rates, that full-year sales in 2024 will grow by 23-27%, up from the previous expectation of 22-28%; it is also expected that full-year operating profit will grow by 21-27%, up from the previous expectation of 20-28%.

• Slow progress in electrification transformation, Toyota Motor's Q2 operating profit declined by 20%.

According to the financial report, $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$ Total revenue for the second quarter was 11.44 trillion yen, slightly higher than analysts' general expectation of about 11.41 trillion yen; operating profit was approximately 1.16 trillion yen, a nearly 20% year-on-year decrease, falling short of analysts' general expectation of about 1.24 trillion yen. This marks Toyota's first quarterly operating profit decline in about two years. The overall car sales in the second quarter dropped from 2.42 million vehicles in the same period last year to 2.3 million vehicles. Compared to car manufacturing peers from China and South Korea, Toyota has been progressing very slowly in fully adopting battery-driven electric vehicles.

Global macro

• Wall Street collectively bullish! Once the dust settles on the election, the US stock market will usher in a "big year-end celebration".

More and more Wall Street strategists predict that the outcome of the US presidential election will lay the foundation for a rise in the stock market at the end of 2024. Analysts from Morgan Stanley, such as Mike Wilson and analysts from JPMorgan, have stated that once the winner is announced, the S&P 500 is expected to rise. Meanwhile, strategists from Jefferies Financial suggest that a stock market weakness in the week before the vote is usually a good sign for the next month's performance, so last week's plunge may be a bullish signal. Goldman Sachs strategists believe that economic recovery will continue to support the stock market. It is worth mentioning that the end of the year is often a seasonally strong period for the US stock market.

• If the "red wave" strikes, is there still more than 20% upside potential for the US stock market?

Jay Hatfield, the founder and CIO of InfraCap, stated that if the Republican Party wins big in the election, the S&P 500 index could rise by nearly 23% by 2025. Specifically, Hatfield expects the S&P 500 index to climb to 7000 points next year, as a Republican-controlled presidency and Congress may mean lower taxes and more business-friendly regulations. In addition, some investors express concern that widespread tariffs under the Trump administration could harm companies that heavily source goods from overseas markets. However, Hatfield points out that concerns about Trump's aggressive tariff stance may be exaggerated.

• "Trump Trade" in full swing, but is it time to be cautious now?

Trump's announcement of victory triggers a flurry of "Trump Trade" explosions. This sends a clear signal that investors expect the second Trump administration to be very similar to his first term. However, the surge in US bond yields highlights concerns that Trump's policies will only exacerbate the bloated budget deficit and reignite inflation, just as Federal Reserve officials had barely managed to calm post-pandemic inflation fears. Industry insiders say, "I expect some profit-taking in the 'Trump Trade,' while bottom fishers will emerge, but the current level of balance in the market is hard to predict."

• The next step for the Federal Reserve: Trump's influence is far greater than Powell's.

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is gradually becoming clear, and the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve may face changes. Bank of America Merrill Lynch recently stated that the outcome of the US election may have a far greater impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve than the remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the monetary policy press conference. The report further explains that if Trump takes office and implements fiscal expansion, the Federal Reserve may raise its neutral interest rate expectations. In addition, if the new president significantly increases tariffs, the Federal Reserve may temporarily pause rate cuts due to concerns about inflation and economic growth impact.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:30 US Department of the Treasury announces the new quarter's debt issuance plan

23:30 US Energy Information Administration's crude oil inventory changes as of the week ending November 1st

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