3Q24 收入承压，订单端具备压力。3Q24 公司财富科技收入2.54 亿元，同比-26.69%；资管科技收入2.89 亿元，同比-24.97%；企金、保险核心与金融基础设施科技收入2.32 亿元，同比+49.67%；运营与机构科技/风险与平台科技/数据服务/创新业务收入分别为2.34/0.91/0.81/1.23 亿元，同比-23.96%/-8.31%/+6.95%/-5.66%。公司3Q24 销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金14.83 亿元，同比-4.67%；截至3Q24 合同负债22.68 亿元，较2023年末的27.66 亿元-18.01%，短期需求承压，但我们预期需求寒冬驱动供给侧向头部集中、外采挤占甲方自研有望进一步提升龙头份额。3Q24 Revenue and net profit less than our expectations
Hang Seng Electronics announced 3Q24 results: 3Q24 revenue of 1.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.26%; net profit to mother of 0.416 billion yuan, affected by a change in fair value of 0.31 billion yuan, an increase of 159.18% year on year; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.132 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.70% year on year. The performance fell short of our expectations, mainly due to pressure on demand and declining revenue from Fortune Technology services.
Development trends
3Q24 Revenue is under pressure, and pressure is on the order side. 3Q24's Fortune Technology revenue was 0.254 billion yuan, -26.69%; asset management technology revenue was 0.289 billion yuan, -24.97%; corporate finance, insurance core and financial infrastructure technology revenue was 0.232 billion yuan, +49.67% year over year; operating and institutional technology/risk and platform technology/data services/innovation business revenue was 2.34/0.091/0.081/0.123 billion yuan, respectively, -23.96%/-8.31% YoY /+6.95%/-5.66% The company received 1.483 billion yuan in cash from sales and labor provision in 3Q24, or -4.67%; as of 3Q24, the contract debt was 2.268 billion yuan, compared to 2.766 billion yuan -18.01% at the end of 2023. Short-term demand is under pressure, but we expect the cold winter to drive supply-side concentration, and outsourcing is expected to further increase Party A's share of the lead.
3Q24 Gross profit declined due to structural changes in revenue, and changes in fair value boosted net profit performance. The 3Q24 company's gross profit margin was 65.10%, -6.59ppt, representing an increase in the share of businesses with lower gross margin; net profit margin to mother was 30.74%, +20.34ppt year over year, mainly due to changes in fair value. The company's management fee rate was 17.07%, +4.04ppt compared with the company's personnel adjustments, mainly due to incremental costs.
The July strategic capital increase won the victory, continuing to empower financial institutions to transform and upgrade. The company's total shareholding ratio increased to 12.9718%, aiming to invest in the long-term and be optimistic about its market position in the escrow and valuation business. In July, Hang Seng Star launched the Star Trading Enhanced Server; in October, the company took the lead in launching the “Financial Industry Big Model and Data Element Collaborative Innovation Center. In terms of institutional investment services, we are working with Huachuang Securities to upgrade the PB system.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintained an outperforming industry rating. Considering that the inflection point on the demand side was later than expected, the 2024/2025 revenue was lowered by 6.3%/8.1% to 6.92/7.03 billion yuan. The company's cost-side control was effective, and the 2024/2025 profit forecast was raised 26.0%/2.1% to 1.392/1.26 billion yuan. We keep our target price of 30 yuan unchanged, corresponding to 43x/39x 2024E/2025E P/OCF. We have 3% upside compared to the current stock price. We are currently trading at 41x/38x 2024E/2025E P/OCF.
risks
The digital transformation trend fell short of expectations, market competition intensified, and the AI layout fell short of expectations.
