Since Grover Cleveland, the President of the United States in 1892, for over 100 years, no U.S. president has been able to return to the White House after losing an election.

However, today, Trump accomplished this feat. With multiple swing states turning red, and after successfully securing the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, Trump sealed the election victory, becoming the first person to win a non-consecutive presidential term since President Grover Cleveland.

In the face of the upcoming "Trump 2.0" era, considering the similarities in his campaign policies with the previous term, investors may find insights from history: which type of assets performed best during Trump's first term?

Taking a lesson from the "Trump 1.0" era

Looking back at the "Trump 1.0" era, according to Minsheng Securities analysis, it can be mainly divided into the following four stages (excluding 2020 due to the epidemic factors):

1. From 2017Q2 to the end of the year: The era of the "Golden Girl". The US dollar fell, US bond yields declined, risk assets performed well, with non-US markets and technology stocks standing out in the stock market.

2. From 2018Q2 to the end of the year: The "nightmare" of risk assets. Economic slowdown, monetary tightening, and trade frictions created triple pressure, with only some defensive sectors showing positive returns.

3. From March to July 2019: Easing to alleviate trade risks. Assets showed clear signs of rate cuts and safe haven features. Long-​term bonds, gold, technology, consumer discretionary, and real estate stocks (rate-sensitive types) all performed well; under trade risks, European stocks outperformed emerging market regions.

4. From August to December 2019: The economy stabilized, and trade risks decreased. Market sentiment towards trade risks gradually dulled, with easing still being an important factor. There was a clear replenishment rally, and the previously declining emerging market stocks showed clear signs of recovery.

Looking at the details,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$It was the best performing among all major asset classes, with an almost 38-fold increase; and on the day of the election, Bitcoin even surged to break through the $75,000 mark, reaching $75,118 per coin, setting a new record high.

Donald Trump once vowed that if he returned to the White House, he would make the United States the global capital of cryptocurrencies, establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and appoint regulators who are passionate about digital assets to show that he is the most friendly candidate to the industry.

In terms of relevant industry indices, the information technology sector leads the S&P 500 index with a cumulative increase of 178%, followed by the consumer discretionary sector, with a growth of 104%.

In the performance of major stock indices globally, the stock markets of India, the USA, and Vietnam have taken the lead in the global markets, among which,$S&P SENSEX30 Index (.SENSEX.IN)$Rising by over 80%, USA$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$while there is a 70% increase.

What impact will the 'Trump 2.0' era have on various assets?

In the upcoming 'Trump 2.0' era, referencing history, statistics show that in the 15 most recent elections, the cumulative increase and decrease of the S&P 500 index six months after the election landing, the probability of US stocks rising is 73%. In this 'Republican presidential victory' scenario, the performance will be even more outstanding.

Moreover, as the outcome of this election is basically Trump winning and the Republicans sweeping Congress, in this scenario, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 index to immediately rise by 3%.

Since the 1950s, in years with 'Republican president + unified executive and legislative branches', such as 1952, 2004, and 2016; in these three years, US stocks saw over 5% increase in the month following the election.

Goldman Sachs also stated that among various industries, this result will be particularly favorable for financial stocks, with regional bank stocks rising by 3%, and domestic cyclical stocks in the USA outperforming global exporters.

On the US Treasury side, due to the resilience of the economy, inflation expectations, and the combined pressure on US Treasury supply, the central long-term US Treasury yield may push the US Treasury yield curve to become steeper.

Firstly, recent data shows that the US economy still exhibits resilience, combined with the Fed starting an interest rate cutting cycle in the US economy.But after the bursting of the internet bubble and the Fed's rate cut in 2001, the ROI dropped by more than 10%.Secondly, internal tax cuts, external tariffs, and stricter immigration policies have increased the secondary inflationary pressures that the United States may face. Thirdly, loose fiscal policies have brought concerns in the market about the supply of U.S. bond rates.

Regarding the US dollar index, although a series of stimulus policies advocated by Donald Trump have a boosting effect on the US dollar index, the Trump team has stated the desire to weaken the US dollar to strengthen US manufacturing and export competitiveness, leading to uncertainty in the trend of the US dollar index due to contradictory policies.

On the gold price side, although gold is under short-term pressure, due to frequent geopolitical conflicts and its anti-inflation characteristics, the market still remains bullish on the medium and long-term trend of gold.

CICC Research points out that there are two pricing logics for gold at the macro level, namely inflation and fiscal. The former means that as U.S. inflation rises, the dollar depreciates internally, leading to gold appreciating relative to the dollar. The fiscal logic is reflected in the synchronicity of gold prices with the U.S. federal deficit rate. Continued fiscal expansion erodes U.S. dollar credit, increasing the allocation value of gold.

In addition, in terms of individual stocks, the 'Trump concept stocks' are collectively enjoying a frenzy. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$Pre-market soared more than 30%, $Phunware (PHUN.US)$rose over 24%, crypto concept stocks $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$Pre-market soared over 12%, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$rose more than 13%, and as one of the big winners of this USA election - under Musk $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Also surged more than 15%.

Mooers can open Futubull > usa Stocks >Investment themesDiscover the Donald Trump concept stocks at a glance!

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