降本增效持续推进，三季度硅片盈利能力环比修复。今年以来，由于光伏行业市场供需错配，竞争加剧导致价格持续下行，硅片业务毛利率承压，叠加存货跌价损失影响业绩。公司全线配备1600 大尺寸炉型，具备拉制M10、G12以及定制化矩形硅片对应尺寸硅棒的能力。随着数智化工厂建设以及产能爬坡规模效应释放，公司硅片业务降本增效持续推进，三季度公司综合毛利率环比改善明显，2024Q3 环比提升28.6pct 至11.3%。此外，公司单三季度资产减值0.68 亿元，较二季度明显收窄，助力公司业绩修复。Matters:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q1-3 achieved revenue of 10.347 billion yuan, or -44.93%; net profit to mother of -1.339 billion yuan, or -195.47%; gross profit margin of -0.39%, year-on-year - 16.51pct; net profit margin of -12.95%, year-on-year - 20.41pct. Among them, the 2024Q3 company achieved revenue of 3.367 billion yuan, or -49.44% month-on-month; net profit to mother -0.082 billion yuan, -110.46% yoy, +91.47% month-on-month; gross profit margin 11.30%, -9.14pct yoy, +28.61 pct month-on-month; net profit margin -2.44%, y-14.23pct, month-on-month +32.80pct.
Commentary:
Cost reduction and efficiency continued to advance, and silicon wafer profitability recovered month-on-month in the third quarter. Since this year, due to the mismatch between supply and demand in the PV industry market, prices have continued to decline due to increased competition. The gross margin of the silicon wafer business has been under pressure, compounded by falling inventory prices, affecting performance. The entire line of the company is equipped with 1600 large furnace models, which have the ability to draw silicon rods of the corresponding size for M10, G12 and customized rectangular silicon wafers. With the construction of digital intelligent chemical plants and the release of scale effects of rising production capacity, the company's silicon wafer business continued to advance in cost reduction and efficiency. The company's overall gross margin improved markedly in the third quarter, and 2024Q3 increased 28.6 pcts to 11.3% month-on-month. In addition, the company's assets depreciated by 0.068 billion yuan in the third quarter, which was significantly narrower than in the second quarter, helping to restore the company's performance.
Cash flow in the third quarter of the single quarter was positive month-on-month, and the cost side was well controlled. 2024Q3's net operating cash flow was 0.205 billion yuan, which was a significant improvement from -1.514 billion yuan in the second quarter. The company's ability to control expenses is excellent. The company's expenses for the 2024Q3 period were 0.325 billion yuan, -10% compared to the second quarter, with financial expenses falling a lot; the cost rate for the period was 9.64%, -3.51 pct.
Hydrogen energy equipment continues to break through, and actively lays out the global hydrogen energy market. In October 2024, the company released the 5000 Nm3/h world's largest alkaline water electrolyzer technology, demonstrating the company's innovative strength of green hydrogen. Since this year, the company has successively reached strategic cooperation in the field of clean energy with MMEC in the UAE, ENERGY DOME in Italy, and P2H in Sweden, and has participated in large-scale green hydrogen projects around the world in Australia. As the economy of green hydrogen projects continues to improve and domestic and foreign demand is released, hydrogen energy equipment is expected to contribute to the company's performance growth.
Investment advice: The company's equipment business is developing steadily, and silicon wafer profit recovery can be expected. We expect the company's net profit to be -1.561/0.953/1.371 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, and the current market value corresponding to PE is -10/16/11 times, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations and historical valuation conditions, 18 x PE in 2025 was given, corresponding to a target price of 9.17 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: terminal demand falls short of expectations, capacity expansion progress falls short of expectations, increased market competition, etc.
