With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.1x Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 19x and even P/E's higher than 34x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Hovnanian Enterprises has been doing very well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
How Is Hovnanian Enterprises' Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Hovnanian Enterprises' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 47% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 58% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's understandable that Hovnanian Enterprises' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent earnings trends are already weighing down the shares.
The Bottom Line On Hovnanian Enterprises' P/E
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Hovnanian Enterprises maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Hovnanian Enterprises (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
