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春风动力(603129):Q3业绩超预期 看好中大排量摩托海内外双高增

Chunfeng Power (603129): Q3 performance exceeded expectations, optimistic about high growth in medium and large displacement motorcycles at home and abroad

The first three quarters of 2024:1) Achieved revenue of 11.45 billion yuan, +21.98%; realized net profit to mother of 1.081 billion yuan, +34.87% YoY; realized net profit of 1.05 billion yuan without return to mother, +36.74% YoY. 2) Achieved gross profit margin of 31.53%, -1.39pct; net profit margin to mother 9.44%, +0.9pct year over year; net profit margin of 9.17% without return to mother, +0.99pct year over year. 3) The cost rate for the period was 18.99%, -2.62 pct year on year, and the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 9.29%, 4.34%, 6.38%, and -1.03%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.93, -0.27, -0.25, and +0.82pct, respectively.

2024Q3 single quarter: 1) Achieved revenue of 3.921 billion yuan, +36.1% year over month, -12.23% month on month; realized net profit of 0.373 billion yuan, +48.95% year on year, -13.63% month on month; realized net profit without return to mother 0.363 billion yuan, +46.62% year on year and -12.63% month on month. 2) Achieved gross profit margin of 31.57%, year-on-year -2.1 pct, month-on-month +0.75pct; net profit margin 9.5%, year-on-year +0.15pct; net profit margin without return to mother 9.25%, year-on-year +0.66pct, month-on-month (-0.04pct.3) The cost ratio for the period was 19.39%, -3.46pct, and sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 8.53%, 3.27%, 6.95%, and 0.64%, year-on-year, respectively. - 1.54, +2.58pct

1) The brand went overseas and attacked the world in two rounds plus four rounds: Qatar won the first race in the first half of 2024, winning the first championship trophy belonging to a Chinese manufacturer in the 75-year history of MotoGP's top motorcycle series. The export value of all-terrain vehicles accounts for 71.75% of the domestic export value of similar products, making it a leading position in the industry. Distribution outlets in the US market continue to expand, and the European market continues to rank first in market share. The export performance of two-wheeled motorcycles is impressive, with a cumulative network of more than 1,500 dealers. 2) The rise of domestic high-displacement motorcycles has broad room for growth: more and more consumers are paying attention and entering the motorcycle gaming band, becoming the intrinsic driving force for industrial development; benefiting from a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, China's motorcycle manufacturing industry is accelerating its transformation to high-end, intelligent and green. The high-displacement motorcycle industry continues to introduce new developments, driving the further growth of the domestic motorcycle industry. The company stands out from the domestic medium and large displacement motorcycle racetracks and continues to launch popular products. The completeness and maturity of the product lineage has rapidly improved, and the sales volume of >250cc high-displacement motorcycles already ranks first in the country. 3) The employee stock ownership plan shows confidence. The cumulative revenue assessment index for three years is not less than 30.5 billion yuan: According to the latest announcement issued by the company on August 7, 2024, the number of stock options to be granted to incentive recipients is 3.55 million shares, accounting for 2.34% of the total share capital. 3.3725 million shares of stock options were granted for the first time, accounting for 2.23% of the total share capital. The license price is 106.00 yuan/copy. The minimum revenue assessment target for employee stock ownership plans is 14 billion in 2024, no less than 30.5 billion yuan for the two years 2024 to 2025, and no less than 50.5 billion yuan for the three years from 2024 to 2026, demonstrating confidence in continued growth.

Profit forecast: We have adjusted our profit forecast. We expect net profit to be 1.355, 1.685, 2.014 billion yuan for 24-26, corresponding PE of 18.31, 14.73, and 12.32 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of adverse changes in trade policy, risk of increased market competition, risk of new product development

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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