维持“增持” 评级，目标价 9.17 港元。Q3 受中东订单暂停及台风影响略有承压，下调2024-25 年EPS 至0.66/0.84 元（原为0.81/0.95元），新增2026 年EPS 预测为1.01 元，参考可比公司，给予25 年10 倍PE，下调目标价至9.17 港元，维持“增持”。Introduction to this report:
The company's Q3 was slightly pressured by the suspension of orders in the Middle East and the typhoon. As the suspended drilling platforms resumed operations and domestic and foreign markets developed, and the offshore oil and gas development industry grew strongly, the company's development continued to improve.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “Overweight” rating, the target price is HK$9.17. Q3 was slightly pressured by the suspension of orders in the Middle East and the typhoon. EPS for 2024-25 was lowered to $0.66/0.84 (originally $0.81/0.95), and the 2026 EPS forecast was added to $1.01. Referring to comparable companies, PE was given 10 times in 25 years, and the target price was lowered to HK$9.17 to maintain “increased holdings”.
2024Q3 performance was slightly under pressure from month to month. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 33.661 billion yuan, +14.1% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 2.445 billion yuan, +7.5% year-on-year. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 11.133 billion yuan, +4.7% year over month, and -10.1% month on month; net profit to mother of 0.852 billion yuan, -8.8% year over year, and -10.9% month on month. The third quarter results were slightly pressured by the suspension of orders in the Middle East and the typhoon.
The utilization rate of drilling platforms declined, and the volume of operations in the ship and geophysical exploration sector increased year-on-year. In the drilling sector, the company's drilling platform operated for 13,166 days in the first three quarters, -0.5% year-on-year. Among them, the jack-up drilling platform operated for 10,595 days, +2.0% year-on-year; the semi-submersible drilling platform operated for 2,571 days, -9.7% compared to the same period last year. The daily utilization rate of the drilling platform was 83.6%, -2.6 pct year on year, of which the jack-up drilling platform was 85.5%, -1.7 pct year on year, 76.8% of the semi-submersible drilling platform, and -6.0 pct year on year.
In the oil technology sector, the volume of operations of major business lines continued to grow year-on-year in the first three quarters, and the scale of revenue continued to grow. In the ship service sector, the company operates and manages more than 200 workboats, with a total of 53,162 days of operation, +29.4% over the same period last year. In the geophysical exploration sector, the two-dimensional collection operation volume was 15,306 kilometers, +17.8% compared to the same period, and the three-dimensional collection workload was 21,426 square kilometers, +79.6% compared with the same period last year.
The utilization rate of drilling platforms is expected to improve, and investment in offshore oil and gas development is growing strongly. The company announced that of the 4 drilling platforms suspended in the Middle East, 2 have secured operating contracts with CNOOC and a well-known petroleum company in Southeast Asia, respectively, and commenced operations in the third and fourth quarters.
The remaining 2 are expected to finalize new operating contracts one after another, while the utilization rate of the drilling platform is expected to improve as the impact of the typhoon is gradually eliminated. Spears & Associates Consulting predicts that in 2024, the size of the global oil field service market will increase by 7.1% year on year, investment in offshore oil and gas development is growing strongly, and it is expected that the domestic oil field service market will continue to improve.
Risk warning: Risk of upstream capital expenditure falling short of expectations, risk of geopolitical events, risk of macroeconomic and oil price decline.
