2024Q1-Q3 公司营收同比增速较2024H1 小幅+0.01pct，主要系公司非息收入表现边际改善。2024Q1-Q3 公司中收、其他非息收入分别同比-15.16%、+12.79%，增速较2024H1 分别+4.27pct、+4.09pct。2024Q1-Q3 公司归母净利润增速较2024H1-3.88pct，主要系息差业务以及拨备计提拖累。从业绩归因来看，2024Q1-Q3 生息资产规模、净息差、中收、拨备计提对净利润的贡献度分别为+6.54%、-4.15%、-3.04%、-6.04%，较2024H1 分别-0.62pct、-1.22pct、+1.23pct、-1.96pct。Key investment points
Industrial Bank released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 164.217 billion yuan, +1.81% over the same period last year. Achieved net profit of 63.006 billion yuan to mother, -3.02% YoY.
Revenue grew steadily, and non-interest income performed well
The year-on-year revenue growth rate of 2024Q1-Q3 was slightly +0.01pct compared to 2024H1, mainly due to a marginal improvement in the company's non-interest revenue performance. 2024Q1-Q3's revenue and other non-interest revenue were -15.16% and +12.79%, respectively, and the growth rates were +4.27pct and +4.09pct, respectively, compared to 2024H1. 2024Q1-Q3's net profit growth rate compared to 2024H1-3.88pct, mainly due to interest spread business and provision accruals. In terms of performance attribution, 2024Q1-Q3's contribution to net profit was +6.54%, -4.15%, -3.04%, and -6.04%, respectively, compared to 2024H1, -0.62pct, -1.22pct, +1.23pct, and -1.96pct, respectively.
The bill impulse is more obvious, and the cost of debt has improved markedly
As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's loan balance was 5.74 trillion yuan, +8.05% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than 2024H1-0.51 pct. Looking at new loans, the company's loans increased net by 72.51 billion yuan in a single quarter in 2024Q3, with a net increase of 66.951 billion yuan in bill discounts, accounting for 92.33%. The bill impulse was quite significant. In terms of net interest spread, 2024Q1-Q3's cumulative net interest spread was 1.84%, compared with 2024H1 -2bp, which is more resilient overall. From the debt side, the company insists on “stabilizing scale” and “reducing costs.” As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's deposit balance was 5.43 trillion yuan, +3.98% year-on-year. The 2024Q1-Q3 deposit interest rate was 2.03%, -23bp year over year, and the decline was greater than 2024H1.
Stable asset quality and sufficient provision
As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's defect rate and concern rate were 1.08% and 1.77% respectively, +0bp and +4bp respectively compared to 2024H1. Attention has increased, mainly due to increased retail risk. Looking at credit impairment losses, 2024Q1-Q3 calculated asset impairment losses of 47.703 billion yuan, +14.31% over the same period last year. In terms of provision, the company's provision coverage rate at the end of 2024Q3 was 233.54%, compared with -4.28pct at the end of 2024H1, which has sufficient risk compensation capacity. In terms of capital, as of the end of 2024Q3, the company's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.70%, and the capital is quite sufficient.
Investment advice: maintaining Societe Generale's “buy” rating
Considering the current decline in interest rates, we expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 214.7/222.8/235.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.83%/+3.78%/+5.50%, and 3-year CAGR of 3.69%; net profit to mother of 77.5/80.1/83.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +0.48%/+3.32%/+4.71%, and 3-year CAGR of 2.82%, respectively. We maintain a “buy” rating considering the company's steady operation and high dividend rate.
Risk warning: Steady growth falls short of expectations, deteriorating asset quality, and regulatory policy shifts.
