As more and more investors expect Trump to win the U.S. presidential election, the dollar strengthens, leading to a drop in prices of commodities from oil to metals and grains. According to Fox News reports, Trump has secured 270 electoral votes needed to defeat his rival Harris, but other news agencies have not yet declared his victory; nevertheless, Trump himself later announced victory in the 2024 presidential election.

Although other news media have not announced Trump's victory, according to Edison Research, after winning the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, and leading in four other states, Trump seems poised to win.

Furthermore, the Republicans have won the majority of seats in the U.S. Senate after overturning the Democratic seats in West Virginia and Ohio. In the struggle for control of the House of Representatives, both parties appear to be evenly matched, with the Republicans currently holding a slight majority in the House.

As global investors' expectations of Trump's victory rise, U.S. stock futures and the dollar rise, U.S. bond yields climb, Bitcoin rises, and analysts and investors believe these trades are benefiting from Trump's victory.

Commodities: The dollar rises while commodity prices fall.

Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's tariff policies will support the dollar in the short term and harm currencies like the Mexican peso. The dollar index widened up by 1.36% to 104.83, reaching a new high since July. Under the pressure of the rising dollar, Asian markets saw oil, soybean, and copper prices fall by about 1.5% and over 2%. Precious metal prices, including gold, remained stable.

Invesco Bank's commodity strategist Ole Hansen said: "This is the commodity market's initial reaction to the U.S. counting and preliminary results favoring Trump. The main focus is that in a potential 'Trump 2.0' scenario, we may see tariffs on Chinese goods, which is unfavorable for metals as China is a major consumer of copper, iron ore, and steel. Due to concerns over global economic growth, oil prices are falling as tariffs are not conducive to overall global demand."

Furthermore, if the Trump administration tightens sanctions on Iran's oil exports, global oil supply may face interruptions. Iran's oil exports are approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. MST Marquee's senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic said: "Trump may support Israel taking a tougher military stance against Iran, which could increase the risk of military escalation and affect the region's supply."

In agriculture, if Trump imposes new tariffs on Chinese goods, the farm product market will also be affected, with soybeans remaining the largest agricultural export to China for the USA.

Spot gold stabilized after reaching a historic high of $2790.15 per ounce last Thursday. Gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and typically performs well in low-interest rate environments.

Bond Market: U.S. bond rates are rising

The Federal Reserve began a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points. However, Trump's victory could complicate the outlook for U.S. rates. U.S. bonds took a big hit, with the U.S. 30-year treasury bonds yield rising by 10 basis points and the U.S. 10-year treasury notes yield up more than 12 basis points, reaching new highs since July.

Analysts point out that Trump's tariff and immigration policies could raise U.S. inflation. A strategist at JPMorgan said that any effective measures to restrict immigration could lead to a severe shortage of labor, potentially becoming a driver of inflation. Goldman Sachs economists also state that Trump's victory could result in tariff hikes leading to soaring inflation.

City Index's senior analyst Matt Simpson stated: "Although the currency market fully expects a 25-basis point rate cut, and it seems likely to happen this week, given that Trump's policies are believed to cause inflation, they may not want to send a dovish signal through a rate cut. This might put pressure on gold in the short term, although any pullback could be slight, as gold will maintain its safe-haven appeal early in President Trump's term."

Cryptocurrency Market: Cryptos surge

As investors closely watch the results of the U.S. presidential election, the cryptocurrency market seems to be preparing for Trump's victory. The former president is seen as a more favorable candidate for the broader cryptocurrency market beyond Bitcoin, as he promises that if re-elected, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will be more crypto-friendly.

According to Coin Metrics data, dogecoin soared nearly 23%, while shiba inu coin rose 12%. At the same time, the price of bitcoin even reached a new record of 0.075 million USD at one point, before narrowing the increase, currently at 0.073 million USD.

Chris Chung, CEO of Titan, a decentralized exchange aggregator built on the Solana blockchain, said: "With the cryptocurrency market experiencing low volatility ahead of the election as the industry hopes for clear regulatory conditions in the future, traders will be prepared for fluctuations once the results are announced. Following the release of election results in various states, certain industries driving price increases, such as renewed interest in meme coins, may experience significant price fluctuations."

USA Stock Market

After Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election, US equity index futures surged on Wednesday. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures rose by 1117 points, an increase of 2.65%, S&P 500 futures rose by 126 points, an increase of 2.19%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 336 points, an increase of 1.66%. Other sectors related to Trump's policies also experienced fluctuations.

Trump concept stocks surge

Shares of Trump's media company - Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) performed strongly in pre-market trading, with gains further expanding from overnight trading to 47%, surpassing $49 per share. At the same time, other Trump concept stocks also saw increases, with Phunware (PHUN.US) up nearly 41%, and Rumble (RUM.US) up over 17%.

Financial reports show that Trump Media and Technology Group reported revenue slightly above $1 million. CEO Devin Nunes emphasized in a statement that this was an extraordinary quarter, significant for the company, Truth Social users, and retail investors supporting the company's mission. It is reported that Nunes previously served as a California congressman.

It is worth noting that, in his speech, Donald Trump also spent a few minutes praising Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who invested about 0.12 billion US dollars in Trump's election campaign. Trump stated that he would appoint Musk to lead a government efficiency committee. Tesla (TSLA.US) also saw a nearly 13% increase in pre-market trading.

Wall Street bank stocks rose.

Major US bank stocks rose in pre-market trading. JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), Citigroup (C.US) rose over 5%, Goldman Sachs (GS.US), Bank of America (BAC.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US) rose over 6%.

Given the Republican Party's attitude towards relaxing financial regulations, it is expected that bank stocks will benefit under Republican control. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) easing regulations is particularly beneficial for financial companies.

In a recent report to clients, Seiberg wrote, "Trump is the kind of candidate where you ignore what he says and focus on what you expect him to do. That's why he promises to relax financial regulations, as his regulatory agencies may roll back most of CFPB's enforcement agenda and reconsider the safety and soundness changes for big banks."

Seiberg noted that considering the possibility of lowering capital requirements, retaining credit card delinquency policies, and assistance in regulating cryptos, trading banks can particularly benefit. However, he warned that Trump's tariff and immigration plans pose downside risks that could lead to inflation.

Traditional energy stocks are on the rise.

Oil, natural gas, and traditional energy companies are seen as potential beneficiaries of a Trump victory because he pledged to lift restrictions on domestic oil production in the United States. Exxon Mobil (XOM.US) rose over 2%, Chevron (CVX.US), ConocoPhillips (COP.US) rose nearly 3%, Devon Energy (DVN.US), Schlumberger (SLB.US) rose almost 5%.

Defense stocks and prison stocks are rising.

Given the expectation that U.S. defense spending will be a clear priority for the Republicans, defense stocks are expected to perform better during a Republican presidential term. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT.US), Northrup Grumman Corporation (NOC.US), and RTX Corp (RTX.US) have all seen increases.

Furthermore, prison stocks such as The GEO Group Inc. (GEO.US) and CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW.US) have shown significant pre-market gains, with increases exceeding 20%, as strict immigration policies will benefit prison facility operators. In addition, stocks of firearm manufacturers Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI.US) and Sturm, Ruger & Company (RGR.US) have also seen gains.

Cannabis stocks are declining.

Under the leadership of the Democratic Party, cannabis stocks typically perform well. The situation is the opposite during Republican rule. Stocks of cannabis-related symbols such as Tilray Brands (TLRY.US), Canopy Growth (CGC.US), Curaleaf Holdings, and AdvisorShares Trust Pure US Cannabis ETF all fell during the night session.

Photovoltaic stocks are declining.

Due to concerns that a potential Trump victory may pose problems for the "Inflation Reduction Act", U.S. solar stocks are falling. This act expands solar power through tax incentives, driving the prosperity of clean energy in the USA.

The Invesco Solar ETF has dropped by 7%. Solar panel manufacturers First Solar (FSLR.US) and Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ.US) fell by nearly 12%. Residential solar stocks Sunrun (RUN.US) and Sunnova (NOVA.US) declined by 14% and 15% respectively. Power inverter manufacturers Enphase (ENPH.US) dropped by 8%, and Nextracker (NXT.US) dropped by 13%.

The Inflation Reduction Act" is one of President Biden's landmark achievements, passed in 2022 through a partisan vote without any Republican support. However, the future of "The Inflation Reduction Act" depends not only on whether Donald Trump can take over the White House, but also on whether the Republicans can control Congress. Currently, the Republicans have won a majority of seats in the Senate, while the situation in the House of Representatives remains tense.