盈利能力略有下滑，期间费用率控制较好：2024 年前三季度，公司综合毛利率同比下降4.76 个百分点至31.02%，综合净利率同比下降3.18 个百分点至13.45%。公司产品综合毛利率同比下降，主要系产品收入结构变化及市场竞争加剧的影响。2024 年前三季度，公司期间费用率同比下降2.19 个百分点至18.12%，其中，公司的销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比-0.42/-0.29/-1.41/-0.07 个百分点至5.29%/4.23%/8.68%/-0.09%，伴随公司收入规模的提升，期间费用率有所摊薄。The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The results for the first three quarters increased 1.04% year-on-year. The company's NEV business continued to expand, and the general automation and elevator business were under slight pressure; the purchase rating was maintained.
Key points to support ratings
Earnings for the first three quarters of 2024 increased 1.04% year on year: the company released its quarterly report for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving revenue of 25.397 billion yuan, up 26.22% year on year; achieving net profit attributable to mother of 3.354 billion yuan, up 1.04% year on year; realized net profit without return to mother of 3.135 billion yuan, up 2.91% year on year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved net profit of 1.236 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.44%.
Profitability declined slightly, and the cost ratio for the period was better controlled: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's comprehensive gross margin fell 4.76 percentage points to 31.02% year on year, and the comprehensive net margin fell 3.18 percentage points year on year to 13.45% year on year. The overall gross margin of the company's products declined year-on-year, mainly due to changes in product revenue structure and increased market competition. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's expenses rate fell 2.19 percentage points year on year to 18.12%. Among them, the company's sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio was -0.42/-0.29/ -1.41/-0.07 percentage points year on year, respectively, to 5.29%/4.23%/8.68%/-0.09%. Along with the increase in the company's revenue scale, the cost ratio for the period was diluted.
The NEV business continues to grow rapidly, and the revenue from the general automation and smart elevator business is under year-on-year pressure: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. Among them, the NEV business achieved sales revenue of about 10.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 96% over the previous year. This was mainly due to the continuous increase in NEV industry penetration rate and the release of customer-specific models. Affected by the decline in demand in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries and weak demand in other industries, the company's general servo system and PLC & HMI revenue were about 4.3 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan respectively, all down year on year. At the same time, due to lower delivery in the real estate industry and reduced demand for new elevators, the company's smart elevator business revenue was about 3.6 billion yuan, down about 6% year on year.
valuations
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's quarterly report and the background of weak downstream demand, we adjusted the company's 2024-2026 earnings forecast to 1.85/2.26/2.67 yuan (the original 2024-2026 forecast was 2.07/2.46/2.82 yuan), corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 32.8/26.8/22.8 times; maintaining the purchase rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
The manufacturing boom fell short of expectations; price competition exceeded expectations; demand in the NEV industry fell short of expectations; NEV customer expansion fell short of expectations; and material costs rose.
