This morning, Trump's lead and chances of winning in the presidential election continue to rise, with the forecast for Trump to win the U.S. presidential election exceeding 90%, causing Bitcoin and the entire crypto market to surge.

Bitcoin quickly broke through its historical high, once again reaching a record of 75,000, with a nearly 10% increase in the last 24 hours (BTC has not disappointed any Hodler so far).

At the same time, Ethereum broke through 2600, leading to a significant increase in the total market value of cryptocurrencies. The current total market value of crypto has risen to 2.6 trillion USD, with a 24-hour increase of 6.72%.

Bitcoin has shown strength since its last pullback on October 10th as market participants realized that election trading had begun, putting the entire market in a 'risk-on' mode.

October 12th - October 30th: chasing the uptrend.

During this 18-day window, just to wait for the election results, the amount of Bitcoin accumulated was crazy. This rebound was basically a one-way uptrend, mocking the bears and completely engulfing the pullbacks. ETF inflows hit a new high. It's simply a crazy bullish environment.

But why did this happen? Saylor's forward trading? Not really, MSTR's announcement hardly caused any volatility - it all stemmed from election trading, that's all. Apart from the increasing probability of Trump's victory, no other factors (such as interest rates or inflation) could provide buyers with this chasing signal.

During those days, the market was rising almost every day, completely ignoring geopolitical risks and the weakness of the Nasdaq (for example, the divergence between Nasdaq and Bitcoin on October 15th). The entire market showed a large green candle. All of this is closely related to Trump's chances of winning. Trump-sensitive stocks were heavily bought, and Bitcoin also rose accordingly.

The open interest (OI) of unfilled contracts continues to increase, even though the perpetual contract has a very large leading margin, bitcoin continues to rise steadily without significant pullbacks, even as nasdaq shows weakness. For example, on October 17th, the price near 67K remained stable for a period of time, followed by a slight follow-up in the spot market, but without a significant pullback. This indicates that not only is there a short-term leveraged liquidation demand in the market, but actual demand is also supporting the rise. This also implies that this uptrend is being event-driven, with investors hoping to enter the market at this time.

Around October 14th, the market shifted from 'we did not properly consider the probability of Trump winning' to 'Trump seems to be winning, now we need to quickly buy in'. That week, the macro market exhibited a clear Trump trading relevance, especially in the nuclear energy and commercial property sectors, which rose along with bitcoin-sensitive stocks. Obviously, this uptrend is not accidental, but the result of Trump trading promotion. The real core event of this market happened during that week, any subsequent increase is just speculative funds betting on short-term results.

After several consecutive days of increase, a turn finally occurred. From October 30th to November 4th: during the reversal trading period, the price of bitcoin was highly correlated with the probability of Trump's victory. Since October 10th, for the first time the market did not easily absorb the pullback as before, despite hitting new highs, there were not significant changes in technical factors (such as the improvement of open interest contracts OI), but the market became indecisive.

This hesitation is due to the decline in the probability of Trump winning, not the so-called 'election risk removal'. For example, the S&P 500 and the nasdaq 100 indexes rose by 1% and 1.2% respectively, but this is not due to the removal of election risk, but rather the decrease in Trump's winning probability, leading to significant selling. This type of correlation would have been unimaginable a few months ago, and currently market participants holding election bets have such a large supply in hand that they completely dominate the price trend.

Will the market drop after the election results?

After Trump's victory, we may see a pullback in the overall uptrend. So, what short-term incentives are there currently to encourage people to buy bitcoin? Will Trump announce the establishment of a sovereign bitcoin fund on the day of the inauguration? No. Are there any other policies that need to change? The USA is already moving towards a bitcoin-friendly direction. How many times did Trump mention bitcoin or cryptocurrencies during the election campaign, especially compared to issues like immigration? None.

Therefore, there will not be much change in the short term, facing a time window of over 2 months now (until Trump officially takes office on January 20), and after that, it may take a long time to see real change.

Traders are not betting on what might happen at least 2 months later. Buying bitcoin now is not a bet on Trump's presidency but a bet on the upcoming election results. The 40% probability of a Harris' victory reduces the attractiveness of being long on bitcoin now, as you still face a large amount of short-term supply selling. So, from a risk/reward perspective, this election market seems more like a 'cutting field' filled with short-term funds.

Trump's victory: Initial excitement can lead to another surge to a new high, then a pullback. Savvy holders will buy bitcoin based on the logic of hedging against inflation.

Harris' victory: The 'early bet' on Trump's victory for a month fails, resulting in a significant sell-off. More savvy holders will buy the supply, and the price gradually rises to a new all-time high, acting as an inflation hedging asset.

The outcome of this election is not crucial; being bullish on bitcoin as an inflation hedge, but short-term upward volatility is overestimated. The actual uptrend has occurred, and the core part of the market movement is already visible on the charts.

The $80,000 threshold becomes a key level, with selling calls dominating.

Options data shows that traders are heavily betting near the $80,000 bitcoin strike price, with strong sales of short-term call options, as traders prepare for possible price movements using option premiums.

The dominance of sold call options indicates that traders are strategically collecting premiums, while the focus on the $80,000 target highlights a potential turning point for bitcoin.