公司自由现金流由23Q1-3 的0.51 亿提升至24Q1-3 的+7.63 亿元。根据公告，前三季度公司经营现金流净额10.55 亿元，同比+60%，资本开支2.92 亿元，同比-52%，综上，24Q1-3 公司自由现金流达7.63 亿元，自由现金流同比实现跨越式增长。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released its three-quarter report. The company's total revenue was 2.544 billion yuan, down 16.4% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.504 billion yuan, down 6.0% year on year. According to data for the single quarter, total revenue for the third quarter was 0.883 billion yuan, down 1.9% year on year, and net profit to mother for the third quarter was 0.201 billion yuan, up 16.8% year on year. Performance slightly exceeded expectations.
The increase in the amount of garbage entering the factory led to an increase in gross margin, which was the main reason for the increase in the company's Q3 profit. According to the company's announcement, the amount of garbage entering the factory in the first three quarters was 10.7075 million tons, an increase of 7% over the previous year; the cumulative feed-in electricity volume was 3.16 billion degrees, an increase of 11% over the previous year, and the cumulative gas supply was 0.3719 million tons, an increase of 24% over the previous year. Based on the company's current production capacity of 0.0402 million tons/day, the company's capacity utilization rate reached 97% in the first three quarters, an increase of 4 pcts compared to 93% in the first three quarters of last year. Looking at the third quarter, the amount of garbage entering the factory was 3.7 million tons, an increase of 4% over the previous month, and the amount of feed-in electricity was 1.088 billion degrees, an increase of 1% over the previous month. Affected by this, the company's gross margin reached 47% in the third quarter, an increase of 2 pcts over the previous quarter.
The company's free cash flow increased from 0.051 billion in 23Q1-3 to +0.763 billion yuan in 24Q1-3. According to the announcement, the company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.055 billion yuan, +60% year-on-year, and capital expenditure was 0.292 billion yuan, or -52% year-on-year. Overall, 24Q1-3's free cash flow reached 0.763 billion yuan, and free cash flow increased by leaps and bounds over the same period last year.
The company clearly increased its dividends, and the 2026 dividend rate will not be less than 50%. The company's dividend rate for 2023 is 33%. According to the “Shareholder Dividend Return Plan for the Next Three Years (2024-2026)” issued by the company on August 30, 2024, it is clear that the company's dividend rate for the next three years will not be less than 40%, 45%, and 50%.
Investment analysis opinion: We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2024-26 at 0.697/0.762/0.831 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.50/0.55/0.60, and corresponding PE of 13/12/11 times. We are optimistic that the company's profits will continue to grow steadily, free cash flow will improve dramatically, dividends will continue to rise, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Continued increase in accounts receivable and recovery risk; risk of national compensation maturity; risk of the company's capacity utilization rate falling short of expectations; risk of EPS dilution due to debt-for-equity swaps.
