公司发布三季报， 2024 年单Q3 实现营收/ 归母/ 扣非6.64/0.89/0.86 亿元， 同比+5.3%/-2.8%/-2.5% ， 环比-20.1%/-22.6%/ -24.1%。Q1-Q3 实现营收/归母/扣非20.95/2.71/2.60 亿元，同比+20.9%/-0.9%/+0.3%。Core views
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In Q3, revenue was not 0.664/0.089/0.086 billion yuan, or +5.3%/-2.8%/-2.5% year-on-year, and -20.1%/-22.6%/-24.1% month-on-month. Q1-Q3 achieved revenue/attribution/deduction of not 2.095/0.271/0.26 billion yuan, +20.9%/+0.3% YoY. The company's revenue maintained year-on-year growth, and the month-on-month decline is expected to be due to revenue restructuring, focusing on industrial and commercial energy storage and power quality businesses with higher gross margins. The company's power quality and charging stations have achieved a leading position in China. PCS for energy storage has entered the top five, and the production capacity layout of the Suzhou factory has been completed. It is expected that under the interest rate cut cycle next year, overseas commercial and commercial savings and fast charging piles are expected to develop faster.
occurrences
The company released three quarterly reports. In the 2024 single Q3, revenue was not 0.664/0.089/0.086 billion yuan, or +5.3%/-2.8%/-2.5% year-on-year, and -20.1%/-22.6%/-24.1% month-on-month. Q1-Q3 achieved revenue/attribution/deduction of not 2.095/0.271/0.26 billion yuan, +20.9%/+0.3% YoY.
Brief review
Revenue and performance declined month-on-month, but gross margin increased. The company's Q3 revenue and performance are expected to decline month-on-month due to business structure, with gross sales margin of 41.5%, -2pct year over year, +1.9pct month-on-month, net sales profit margin 13.3%, -0.9 pct year on year, and -0.4 pct month-on-month. The company's gross margin increased month-on-month, which is expected mainly due to the selection of relatively high-margin commercial and commercial savings orders and a decrease in the delivery of large storage orders. It is expected that the growth rate of the company's energy storage business will slow down due to a decrease in large storage and the lack of recovery in overseas industrial and commercial storage demand; the company's charging pile business is expected to maintain a high growth rate; and the industrial power supply business and battery conversion business will maintain steady growth.
Net interest rate is expected to drop slightly month-on-month due to fees, exchange losses, etc.
The absolute value of the company's Q3 fee was about 0.182 billion yuan, a slight decrease from month to month, but due to the decline in revenue scale, the cost rate rose to 27.3%, +4.5 pct month-on-month, causing the company's net interest rate to drop slightly month-on-month.
In terms of financial expenses, Q1-Q3's financial expenses were 1.83 million, an increase of about 11 million over the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in exchange earnings.
Overseas demand is expected to recover next year under the interest rate cut cycle, and domestic business will remain highly competitive
It is expected that in the second half of the year, the company's business will focus on relatively high-profit industrial and commercial storage, power quality, charging piles, etc., and maintain its leading position in the country. The company has completed the production capacity layout of the Suzhou plant. It is expected that under the interest rate cut cycle next year, demand for overseas commercial storage and charging stations is expected to recover, and the performance is expected to return to a high growth trajectory.
Profit forecasting
The company's net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2025 is estimated to be 0.404, 0.508, and 0.634 billion yuan, respectively, with valuations of 19.7, 15.6, and 12.6 times.
Risk analysis
1) Demand side: The growth rate of installed domestic energy storage fell short of expectations, and the growth rate of new energy investment declined; overseas energy storage demand fell short of expectations, and overseas carbon neutrality progress was slowing down.
2) Supply side: The supply of power electronic devices such as IGBTs is tight, and the progress of localization falls short of expectations; prices and processing costs of raw materials such as copper, aluminum, and steel have risen.
3) Policy aspects: Support policies related to energy storage fell short of expectations; compensation standards for capacity electricity prices fell short of expectations; electricity spot market progress fell short of expectations; electricity peak and valley price differences fell short of expectations.
4) In terms of the international situation: international trade barriers have deepened, exports have been blocked; local production requirements have increased and costs have risen; international conflicts have led to rising shipping costs and extended delivery times.
5) Market side: Increased competition has led to lower gross profit margins and profitability of energy storage batteries, integrators, and PCS manufacturers than expected; the company's market competition strategy is wrong.
