公司2024Q1-Q3 实现营收1754.54 亿元（同减7%），归母净利润14.31 亿元（同减33%），扣非归母净利润2.38 亿元（同减74%）。其中2024Q3 公司营收659.76 亿元（同减5%），主要系产品价格下跌影响超过销量增长贡献，主要产品价格随大豆及大豆油价格下跌而下降，总体销量同比增长，归母净利润3.34 亿元（同减71%），扣非归母净利润0.78 亿元（同减91%）。盈利端，2024Q3 公司毛利率同减1pct 至4.87%，销售/管理费用率分别同增0.3pct/0.2pct 至2.54%/1.44%，净利率同减1pct 至0.50%。On October 30, 2024, Arowana released its report for the third quarter of 2024.
Key investment points
Revenue declined due to volume increases and price declines, and profit performance is under relative pressure
In 2024Q1-Q3, the company achieved revenue of 175.454 billion yuan (same decrease of 7%), net profit to mother of 1.431 billion yuan (same decrease of 33%), and net profit not attributable to mother of 0.238 billion yuan (same decrease of 74%). Among them, the 2024Q3 company's revenue was 65.976 billion yuan (same decrease of 5%), mainly due to the impact of falling product prices exceeding the contribution of sales growth. Prices of major products declined as the price of soybeans and soybean oil fell. Overall sales volume increased year-on-year. Net profit to mother was 0.334 billion yuan (same decrease of 71%), net profit not attributable to mother was 0.078 billion yuan (same decrease of 91%). On the profit side, 2024Q3's gross margin decreased by 1 pct to 4.87%, the sales/management expenses ratio increased 0.3 pct/0.2 pct to 2.54%/1.44%, respectively, and the net margin decreased by 1 pct to 0.50%.
Kitchen food improved month-on-month, and the pressing business continued to improve
Kitchen food sales remained flat year on year in 2024Q3, and profits increased year on year, mainly due to increased demand for condiments, daily chemicals, etc. Catering channels grew steadily, and C-side e-commerce channels maintained good growth. Modern channels and large store closures had an impact on the market. Now the trend is gradually stabilizing, and distributors and special channels are relatively stable. Since late August, sales prices of products such as soybean oil and vegetable oil have rebounded, and the company's gross profit from catering and food industry channel products has risen. At the same time, the performance of the flour business improved markedly compared to the first half of the year. Sales of feed raw materials and oil technology products increased year-on-year in 2024Q3, mainly due to the company's obvious advantages in feed raw material sales channels and raw material procurement, but the performance of pressing profits was poor, which led to a significant decline in the overall performance of the sector.
Profit forecasting
As a leading kitchen food company, revenue is pressured by fluctuations in raw material costs in the short term, but product sales are still rising steadily, and they are using supply chain advantages to explore a new blue ocean for central chefs. They are optimistic that the decline in the company's channels will bring room for scale growth. As market demand picks up, performance is expected to recover further. According to the three-quarter report, we adjusted the 2024-2026 EPS to 0.43/0.54/0.66 yuan (previous value was 0.57/0.71/0.84 yuan), and the current stock price corresponding PE was 80/63/52 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk of changes in industry policies, consumption recovery falling short of expectations, fluctuations in downstream demand, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.