According to the latest calculations released by multiple American media such as the Congress Hill Report, the Republican presidential candidate Trump will win more than half of the electoral votes. It is expected to secure victory in this year's American presidential election. In addition, Trump has announced victory in the 2024 presidential election.

Donald Trump, 78 years old, served as the 45th President of the United States. He grew up in Queens, New York, and later took over the family business, managing the Trump Organization, Trump Entertainment Resorts, real estate, and casinos. He also owned the Miss USA and Miss Universe pageants, and hosted the reality TV show 'The Apprentice.'

After being elected President in 2016, he sparked both support and controversy with his 'Trumpism' style. In 2019 and 2021, Trump faced two impeachments for abuse of power and incitement of insurrection, but was not convicted by the Senate. In 2024, he was found guilty in a hush-money case, becoming the first former President to be convicted.

Bryan Lanza, a political advisor to Trump since his 2016 campaign, said: 'When he is knocked down, he will come back even more focused.' 'I don't think anyone should be surprised by this comeback.'

Upon learning this news, spot gold and silver prices plunged, the US dollar surged sharply, and US bond yields rose significantly. Amanda Sundstroem, a strategist at the Swedish Nordic Bank, said in a report,

'Market volatility will continue in the coming days as the election results and the market attempt to navigate their impact on growth, inflation, and monetary policy.'

Trump is set to return to the White House!

On January 20, 2025, the elected president is expected to follow the tradition in American history, having coffee with the outgoing president at the White House, then traveling by motorcade along Pennsylvania Avenue to attend the noon inauguration ceremony.

Trump had warned voters that his second term could sometimes become 'unpleasant.' During the campaign, he emphasized economic growth, tax cuts, tough immigration policies, and conservative social policies, planning to promote domestic manufacturing and energy self-sufficiency with a strategy of putting America first.

Economically, he stressed reducing living costs by expanding energy production and curbing illegal immigration to address basic price issues such as housing. His tax policy includes extending the 2017 tax cuts, further reducing corporate taxes, and exempting tip taxes to support small businesses and the middle class.

In terms of trade policy, Trump plans to impose higher tariffs on imported goods to promote domestic manufacturing and protect American jobs. He also proposed a commitment to strengthen border security by completing the border wall and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants to control the inflow of immigration, protecting the American job market and resource allocation.

In foreign policy, Trump takes an isolationist stance, advocating for negotiations with Russia to quickly end the war in Ukraine while reducing financial support for Ukraine. Regarding NATO, he stated that he will not protect countries with inadequate defense spending to ensure the most effective return on U.S. defense investment.

Domestically, Trump firmly supports Israel and condemns pro-Palestinian supporters' statements. In terms of medical care, he promises to protect Medicare for the elderly and calls for subsidies for fertility treatment. On crime issues, he vows to combat drug and gang violence, maintain community security by supplementing law enforcement.

On abortion policy, Trump takes a moderate position, advocating for each state to decide whether to ban abortion to avoid national controversy. In terms of climate, he promises to relax environmental regulations to support the traditional energy industry, opposes electric vehicle policies and renewable energy, especially wind power projects, believing these are detrimental to traditional industries and employment.

Market Impact: Trump 2.0 trading is making a comeback

Trump's election may have a significant impact on the global market. If the "Trump 2.0" policy is fully implemented, its trade protection and inflationary policies may increase inflation pressure in the short term, affecting the maintenance of high levels in the US bond yields, with limited downside space for interest rates. The US dollar may have short-term momentum to rally, but the long-term trend depends on the effectiveness of policy implementation. Gold and commodities are greatly affected by interest rates, risk aversion sentiment, and supply policies. On the US stock side, it is expected that tax reform and tax cut policies will help improve the performance of cyclical stocks, supporting the overall market profit level.

During Trump's second term, the focus is expected to be on deregulation, reducing corporate taxes, and increasing tariffs. This may drive industries such as traditional energy, finance, and defense, which have flourished under lax regulations, in the short term. However, this has also raised concerns about long-term geopolitical instability and fiscal discipline, with industries related to international trade such as technology and consumer goods facing increased volatility as tariffs rise.

Trump 2.0 will reshape the world order once again

Trump ultimately wins the 2024 presidential election and regains the presidency. He may fundamentally reshape international politics.

During the campaign process, Trump very clearly stated that he believes it is necessary to make major changes to US foreign policy. "We have been treated so badly, mainly by allies... Our allies treat us worse, in fact, than our so-called enemies," Trump told the audience at a campaign event in Wisconsin.

In his first term, Trump pursued his so-called "America First" foreign policy, withdrawing from major international agreements, verbally confronting allies, and attempting complex negotiations with several adversaries of the United States.

In Trump's publicly stated foreign policy position, protectionist trade policies may directly harm Americans; his proposed tariff increases will trigger a global trade war and raise prices for American consumers to bear. Trump insists that his tariffs will create job opportunities domestically and free the United States from the manipulation of foreign manufacturing.

In the long run, his ideas about the role the United States plays in international affairs may erode American diplomacy and undermine institutions like NATO and the United Nations. This could have a lasting impact on the geopolitical landscape, much like his first-term foreign policy decisions.

Additionally, during the election campaign, Trump made significant commitments, such as ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, but reality may prove to be much more difficult and chaotic than what he promised.

Is Musk the biggest beneficiary?

Former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, technology billionaire Musk and his business empire will receive huge rewards. Few people have a greater stake in this year's presidential election than Musk. Over the past few months, Musk has been actively supporting Trump's campaign, and has donated over $0.118 billion through a Super PAC. On election night, Trump spent time with Musk at the Mar-a-Lago estate.

For Musk and his companies, the potential benefits are extensive, potentially involving regulatory issues such as labor laws and environmental protection, reduced tax rates, and increased opportunities for Musk's rocket company SpaceX to obtain more government contracts. Musk will strengthen his company's government business through his deep relationship with Trump, potentially targeting competitors in the aerospace industry, such as Boeing. Musk has previously criticized Boeing for partnering with other defense giants to secure large government contracts.

At 53, Musk may also wield influence in Trump's second government term, such as becoming an advisor for cost-cutting. However, Trump has given conflicting statements about how Musk would integrate into his administration, as he stated in an interview with Fox News last month that he wants Musk to be his 'Secretary of Cost Cutting,' but 'not enter the cabinet.'

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