随着前总统特朗普在美国总统竞选中领先于副总统哈里斯，发生“红色浪潮”的可能性正在急速增加。Market expectations for Trump's return to the White House are growing, traders are reducing their bets on a Fed rate cut next year, but this does not seem to hinder the strength of US stocks...
InfraCap founder and CIO Jay Hatfield said that if the Republican Party wins big in the election,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$it could rise by nearly 23% by 2025.
Specifically, Hatfield stated that he expects the s&p 500 index to climb to 7000 points next year, as a Republican-controlled presidency and congress could mean lower taxes and more favorable regulations for businesses.
With former President Trump leading Vice President Harris in the US presidential race, the possibility of a 'red wave' is rapidly increasing.
According to NBC News, Trump won the swing state of North Carolina, while Harris won Virginia. The Republican Party also seems poised to sweep the Congress.
Some investors are concerned that the widespread tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may harm companies that heavily source commodities from overseas markets.
Hatfield points out that concerns about Trump's aggressive tariff stance may be exaggerated. "We believe people are too nervous about tariffs because they always overlook the significant revenue they generate. If you take away this revenue, cut corporate taxes or even personal taxes, it will greatly offset this, actually benefiting investments."
As the preliminary election results for the US presidential election are released, expectations in the market for Republican candidate Trump to win the presidency are increasing. Traders are reducing bets on a rate cut by the Fed next year, leading to a sharp strengthening of the US dollar and a significant increase in US treasury yields.
Futures traders linked to the US Fed policy rate continue to bet that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week and cut rates again in December, but now expect the Fed to possibly stop cutting rates after two more cuts in the first half of 2025, lowering rates to a range of 3.75%-4%.
However, waiting for the final results of the election may be a long process, as Swedbank Nordic Banks strategist Amanda Sundstroem said in a report: "In the coming days, the market will continue to fluctuate due to the election results and the market's attempt to navigate the impact of the new president on growth, inflation, and monetary policy."
Editor/Rocky
