营收持续正增长，利息净收入稳定支撑利润空间，拨备前利润边际降幅企稳，归母净利润增速由负转正。2024 年前三季度，邮储银行实现总营收约2603.49 亿元，其中利息净收入2149.47 亿元，同比上升1.46%，增速环比微降0.37pct；非息净收入为454.02 亿元，同比下降5.95%，环比降幅收窄1.57pc。前三季度拨备计提释放了约22 亿元的利润空间，助力企业归母净利润增速由负转正，24Q1、24H1、24Q1-3 归母净利润增速分别为-1.35%、-1.51%和0.22%。受央行下调LPR 及房贷利率政策影响，2024 年前三季度邮储银行净息差降至1.85%。结合今年下半年的贷款利率和存款挂牌利率双向调整环境下，企业未来息差压力可能有所减缓，营收能力也可能随之向好。Incidents:
The Postbank released financial results for the 3rd quarter of '24. In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved revenue of about 260.349 billion yuan, net profit to mother of about 75.818 billion yuan, YoY +0.22%; the non-performing rate was 0.86%, and the coverage rate of bad provisions was 301.9%.
Review summary:
Revenue continued to grow positively, net interest income steadily supported profit margins, marginal profit decline stabilized before provision, and the growth rate of net profit to mother changed from negative to positive. In the first three quarters of 2024, the Postbank achieved total revenue of about 260.349 billion yuan, of which net interest income was 214.947 billion yuan, up 1.46% year on year, and the growth rate decreased slightly by 0.37 pcts month on month; non-interest net income was 45.402 billion yuan, down 5.95% year on year, and the month-on-month decline narrowed by 1.57 pc. The provision plan for the first three quarters released a profit margin of about 2.2 billion yuan, helping companies change the net profit growth rate from negative to positive. 24Q1, 24H1, and 24Q1-3 net profit growth rates were -1.35%, -1.51%, and 0.22%, respectively. Affected by the central bank's policy of lowering LPR and mortgage interest rates, Postbank's net interest spread fell to 1.85% in the first three quarters of 2024. Combined with the two-way adjustment environment of loan interest rates and deposit listing interest rates in the second half of this year, the pressure on companies' future interest spreads may ease, and revenue capacity may improve accordingly.
The level of liquidity coverage was slightly fixed. In the first three quarters of 2024, corporate liquidity coverage rates were 282.57%, 242.91%, and 259.95%, respectively.
Asset side: The total interest-bearing assets of the 24Q3 Postbank were about 16510.8 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0% over the previous month.
Looking at the structural breakdown, loans, financial investment, interbank, and dissolution and deposit central banks accounted for 51.8%, 35.0%, 5.5%, and 7.7% of interest-bearing assets, respectively, compared with changes of -0.23, +0.02, +0.64, and -0.43 pct from 24H1.
Debt side: 24Q3 Postbank's interest-bearing debt was about 15795.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.00% over the previous month. In terms of debt structure, absorption of deposits, issuance of bonds, interbank loans, and loans from the central bank accounted for 95.0%, 1.3%, 3.5%, and 0.2% of interest-bearing debt, respectively, compared with 24H1 month-on-month changes of -2.02, +0.41, +1.61, and 0.0pct.
Asset quality is generally stable and remains at an excellent level. In the first three quarters of 2024, Postbank's non-performing loan balance was 75.5 billion yuan, accounting for 0.86%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points over the previous quarter. In terms of provision, the 24Q1-3 corporate loan provision rate and non-performing provision coverage rate were 2.60% and 301.9%, respectively, down 0.12 percentage points and 23.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Profit Forecast and Valuation:
Postbank's 24Q3 corporate profit growth rate changed from negative to positive, and asset quality was steady. We forecast a year-on-year increase of 2.30%, 3.60%, and 5.50% in 2024-2026, corresponding to current BPS prices: 8.55, 9.77, and 11.62 yuan. We used the dividend discount model to estimate a target price of 6.48 yuan, corresponding to 0.76x PB in 24 years, 20% of the current price space, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic shocks, sharp exposure of non-performing assets, high pressure on interest spreads