The well-known election prediction indicators show that Trump's probability of winning the 2024 USA presidential election has already reached 90%, with a chance to secure 301 electoral votes.
In the US presidential election, the Republican Party first won control of the US Senate, giving them strong influence in the high-stakes battle over taxes and spending, and the ultimate decision-making power over the executive and judicial nominations of the next president.
It is reported that wealthy former car dealer and far-right Republican Bernie Moreno defeated the three-term incumbent Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, giving the Republican Party enough seats to control the US Senate.
The Associated Press expects that Republican control of the Senate may shatter the hopes of progressives to significantly increase the US tax burden, taxing corporations and the wealthy, as tens of trillions of dollars in provisions from the 2017 tax law will expire by the end of next year.
Trump's prospects of winning the presidential election are growing, triggering a sharp sell-off in the bond market, with traders speculating that his tax cuts and tariff policies will exacerbate inflationary pressures and keep federal fund rates high.
Any new tax legislation will require approval from the Republican-controlled Senate, but the balance of power in how to deal with expiring tax cuts still depends on which party controls the presidency and the US House of Representatives.
The Democratic Party even holds a slim majority in the Senate in this election, and since senators serve six-year terms, only one-third of senators are up for reelection in this election.
However, the hope for unexpected victories for the Democratic Party in Texas and Florida was quickly dashed, as incumbent Republicans Ted Cruz and Rick Scott were both successfully reelected. Nevertheless, the Democratic Party successfully defended against Republican Larry Hogan's challenge in Maryland, with Democrat Angela Alsobrooks emerging victorious.
Republicans in the campaign criticized Democrats for the soaring cost of living and illegal immigration during President Biden's term. The Senate had previously deemed Biden's agenda crucial in the first two years of the Biden administration, including trillions of dollars in stimulus spending and investments in semiconductor manufacturing, infrastructure, and his landmark climate bill.
Republicans stated that they intend to cut Biden's climate bill, roll back regulations on energy production, strengthen the U.S. border with Mexico, and extend President Trump's 2017 tax cuts.
However, the party faces significant divisions on budget and foreign policy issues, including funding for Ukraine. These divisions, along with Senate obstruction rules (requiring 60 votes for most legislation to pass), will require Republicans to work with Democrats.
McConnell, who set the record for the longest-serving Senate party leader, announced he would step down from his leadership position. The most likely candidates among Republicans to succeed him include McConnell's second-in-command, John Thune from South Dakota, and John Cornyn from Texas.
However, both of these individuals have criticized Trump in the past and supported aid to Ukraine, leaving room for other potential challengers supported by Trump, such as Scott from Florida.
Currently, the control of the White House and the U.S. House of Representatives remains unpredictable. Nevertheless, renowned election prognosticators - the 'election forecasting pointer' from the New York Times - indicates that as of 13:01 Beijing time, Trump's probability of winning the 2024 U.S. election has soared to 90%, with a chance to secure 301 electoral votes. According to U.S. election rules, a candidate only needs to obtain 270 electoral votes to win.
Editor/Lambor