大摩认为，即使因季节性关系短期现货运费有所波动，今明两年航运业下行周期料将持续，予中远海控“减持”评级。报告中称，公司今年第三季度净利润同比增长286%至213亿元人民币。剔除一次性项目，经常性利润同比增长289%，与初步业绩一致。大摩估算，集团旗下东方海外国际第三季度贡献12亿美元，占分部利润约37%，并与上半年持平。该行亦认为，中远海控第三季度表现将标志今年度盈利的高峰。Stocks in marine transportation fell in the afternoon. As of the time of reporting, Cosco Shipping Holdings (01919) dropped by 3.48% to HK$12.2; Sitc (01308) fell by 2.43% to HK$22.05; Ooil (00316) fell by 2.34% to HK$112.8; Cosco Shipping Development (02866) fell by 0.91% to HK$1.09.
According to the Financial Channel app, marine transportation stocks fell in the afternoon. As of the time of reporting, Cosco Shipping Holdings (01919) dropped by 3.48% to HK$12.2; Sitc (01308) fell by 2.43% to HK$22.05; Ooil (00316) fell by 2.34% to HK$112.8; Cosco Shipping Development (02866) fell by 0.91% to HK$1.09.
Swhy pointed out that airlines hope to urge shippers and freight forwarders to book cargo for the near term by announcing increases in forward prices. However, there is no significant improvement in freight volumes for October at the moment. At the beginning of November, overall booking prices are around $4000 per FEU, with high-priced transactions actually being relatively rare. Against the backdrop of weak reality and strong expectations, there is a concern that the implementation of high price announcements may fall short of expectations and frequent price hikes may cause shippers to become numb. The U.S. presidential election is about to take place, and the market anticipates a rush in shipping due to the possible imposition of tariffs once Trump takes office. This may temporarily push up the prices of shipping. However, the specific situation still requires monitoring the results of the U.S. election and the tariff situation.
Deutsche Bank believes that despite short-term fluctuations in spot freight rates due to seasonal factors, the downward cycle in the shipping industry is expected to continue over the next two years. They have downgraded their rating on Cosco Shipping Holdings to 'shareholding.' The report stated that the company's net income in the third quarter of this year increased by 286% year-on-year to 21.3 billion yuan. Excluding one-off items, recurring profits increased by 289% year-on-year, in line with preliminary performance. Deutsche Bank estimates that ooil's Orient Overseas International subsidiary contributed $1.2 billion in the third quarter, accounting for approximately 37% of the division's profits, holding steady with the first half. The bank also believes that Cosco Shipping Holdings' third-quarter performance will mark the peak of this year's profits.
