分析师在周一的一份报告中写道：“尽管最近宏观数据疲软（部分原因是上个月的罢工和飓风），但对股市友好的美国宏观背景应该会限制熊市的风险。”Goldman Sachs analysts believe that a healthy economic background will help the stock market digest higher bond yields.
Goldman Sachs stated that although investors may feel nervous about election-related volatility, the market conditions are good and can avoid a sharp decline into bear market territory after the vote.
Analysts stated that they believe the probability of a stock market drop of more than 20% (entering a technical bear market) is only 18%. They pointed out that a healthy economy continues to help drive this year's stock market rally.
In a report on Monday, analysts wrote: 'Although recent macro data has been weak (partly due to last month's strikes and hurricanes), the stock market-friendly U.S. macro backdrop should limit the risk of a bear market.'
They stated that even if bond yields rise significantly after the election, stocks should continue to perform well.
'As long as stocks are driven by better economic growth, they should be able to absorb higher bond yields. Nevertheless, if real yields start to rise (relative to expected real GDP growth) or if bond yields rise too quickly, the rise in bond yields may eventually limit the pace of stock market gains,' they explained.
Analysts and economists generally believe that if Trump wins, bond yields may rise further, which is a negative factor for the stock market. His proposals for comprehensive tariff imposition and massive deportation of immigrants may lead to inflation and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy.
On the other hand, analysts stated that if Harris wins in a split Congress scenario, it may lead to a decline in bond yields.
The Federal Reserve made a significant interest rate cut in September, and the market generally expects it to continue cutting rates by 25 basis points at the end of this week's meeting.
The path of the subsequent easing cycle is uncertain, as some strategists warn that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in December or early next year. However, some still believe that with the economic slowdown and soft labor market, the Federal Reserve will make another significant rate cut.
Goldman Sachs analyst states that so far, the stock market has been able to digest the continuously rising bond yields. They expect the stock market to avoid a bear market.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$It has surged over 21% this year, marking the bull market's two-year anniversary last month.
Editor/Rocky
