1）24 上半年多用途船、重吊船毛利分别为2.6/3.2 亿元。24Q3 MPP 市场均价为1.87 万$/天，同比+6.9%，环比+5.4%；红海绕行对MPP 运价有带动作用，预计三季度该板块毛利贡献环比上行。10 月份MPP 均价维持稳定，预计Q4 景气度持平。COSCO Haite released its three-quarter report, and the results exceeded expectations. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%; net profit to mother of 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 31.4% year on year; after deducting non-profit of 1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 46.9% year on year. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 4.56 billion yuan, up 47.7% year on year; net profit to mother 0.473 billion yuan, up 74% year on year; deducted non-profit of 0.467 billion yuan, up 159.3% year on year.
The volume and price of automobile transportation rose sharply, and the multi-purpose ship market was booming, and the 24Q3 performance exceeded expectations. The Red Sea detour drove higher freight rates in the multi-use and pulp markets, and the Q3 performance release logic was fulfilled. Also, since April, the company has merged with Yuanhai Auto Shipping Company, and the volume price of the Q3 automobile transportation business has risen sharply. In 24Q3, the company's revenue growth rate was over 45%, with gross margin of 24%, +6.5 pcts year over year and +6.8 pcts month over month. In terms of expenses, mainly due to corporate mergers, 24HQ3's management expenses increased by about 0.052 billion yuan over the same period last year; at the same time, R&D expenses and financial expenses remained stable.
Segment business: The volume and price of pulp and automobile transportation rose sharply in Q3, and the MPP boom continued to pick up, driven by consolidation.
1) The gross profit of multi-purpose ships and heavy gondolas in the first half of the year was 0.26/0.32 billion yuan respectively. The average price in the 24Q3 MPP market was 0.0187 million$/day, +6.9% year over month, and +5.4% month over month; the Red Sea detour had a driving effect on MPP freight rates, and the sector's gross profit contribution is expected to increase month-on-month in the third quarter. The average MPP price remained stable in October, and the Q4 boom is expected to remain flat.
2) The gross profit of 24H1 pulp and motor ship was 0.21/0.14 billion yuan respectively. Motor ship profits for the same period last year were mainly investment income, so the gross profit base was 0. Q3 Pulp+Motor Transport profits all rose sharply year over year. Driven mainly by the boom in cargo+automobile exports, the logic of a sharp rise in volume and price was realized. According to the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the year-on-year growth rate of China's automobile shipments in the first three quarters of 24 reached 27%, and the growth rate in Q3 reached 22%. Since April '24, the company has also listed offshore car carriers, and the efficiency of automobile transportation management will improve markedly in the future.
3) The gross profit of semi-submersible ships in the first half of the year 24 was 0.17 billion yuan. The sector's gross profit is expected to increase month-on-month in Q3, but there is still a slight year-on-year decline. Mainly due to the postponement of contracts this year, the number of operating days was reduced, but profit contributions are expected to pick up after the start of new projects in the fourth quarter.
Investment suggestions: 1) Maintaining MPP market sentiment; 2) Optimistic about the incremental space in the automobile export logistics market, even if tariffs are difficult to change the growth trend of domestic automobile exports within 2-3 years; 3) Maintain an annual cash dividend ratio of 50% and increase shareholders' holdings by about 0.14-0.29 billion yuan; 4) In the future, the company will strengthen its level of governance while emphasizing cost control. Considering the fast delivery speed of car ships and raising the profit forecast, it is estimated that 24-26 profit will be 1.7/1.97/2.31 billion yuan, up 59%/16%/17% year on year, respectively. The growth rate is good, corresponding to 24-year profit. The PE valuation is 9.7x, which was raised to a “highly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, international trade friction, performance measurement risk, etc.
