Lyon released a report stating that Kuaishou (01024.HK) is expected to grow its third-quarter revenue by 11.4% year-on-year to 31.1 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA likely to increase by 24% year-on-year to 3.9 billion RMB. However, due to weak consumer demand and intense competition, it is expected that the e-commerce business will show significant slowdown, with GMV increasing by only 15% to 334 billion RMB.
Lyon stated that as live streaming e-commerce matures, Kuaishou needs to expand its shelf e-commerce to drive GMV growth, in order to compete directly with traditional e-commerce platforms, but this may also lower future profit margins. Therefore, they have lowered Kuaishou's long-term profit margin from the previous 17% to 16%, decreased the target price from 70 RMB to 67 RMB, but maintained their 'outperform' rating.