HSBC Research released a report stating that the mainland beer industry's sales recovery in the third quarter was below the bank's expectations. Even with a low base, the average third-quarter sales of the tracked companies dropped by 6.2% year-on-year. The bank believes that this is due to the decrease in consumer spending on outings, preferring to drink beer at home. The bank expects most companies to focus on destocking in the fourth quarter, anticipating a year-on-year narrowing of losses in the fourth quarter due to cost advantages and strict expenditure management. As for 2025, it is believed that most brewers will benefit from alleviated sales pressure, with sales expected to accelerate recovery in the second half of 2025 from a low base.

The bank believes that the industry currently lacks catalysts and is not highly valued. Based on weaker sales growth, the bank lowered its profit forecasts for Bud APAC (01876.HK) from 2021 to 2026 by 15%, 14.2%, and 13.5%, to USD 0.791 billion, USD 0.909 billion, and USD 0.945 billion respectively. It also reduced its target price from HKD 10.4 to HKD 9.1, maintaining a 'hold' rating. Furthermore, due to the weak consumption environment, there is a preference for Tsingtao Brewery (00168.HK) because of its higher sales exposure in the mass market and more attractive dividend yield, maintaining a 'buy' rating with a target price of HKD 59.2.