营收和利润均边际改善。2024 年前三季度，交通银行营收同比下降1.39%，边际降幅较24H1 收窄2.12 个百分点。其中，利息净收入为1267.96 亿元，同比增长2.15%；非息净收入为693.27 亿元，同比下降7.27%，环比降幅收窄4.88 个百分点。在营收结构方面，利息净收入占比回升至64.7%，较年中增加1 个百分点。拨备前利润和净利润基本跟随营收走势，PPOP 24Q3 降幅收窄2.81 个百分点。企业归母净利润边际向好，24H1和24Q3 同比增速分别为-1.63%和-0.69%，降幅收窄0.94 个百分点净息差体现较强韧性。受央行下调LPR 及房贷利率政策影响，加之宏观经济因素作用，2024 年前三季度交通银行净息差微降至1.28%，较24H1下降1 个基点。在今年下半年贷款利率与存款挂牌利率双向调整的背景下，未来息差压力有望缓解，营收能力亦有望改善。。Incidents:
Bank of Communications released financial results for the 3rd quarter of '24. In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved revenue of about 196.123 billion yuan, net profit of 68.69 billion yuan, YoY -0.69%; a non-performing ratio of 1.32%, and a non-performing provision coverage rate of 203.9%.
Review summary:
Both revenue and profit improved marginally. In the first three quarters of 2024, Bank of Communications revenue fell 1.39% year on year, and the marginal decline was 2.12 percentage points narrower than 24H1. Among them, net interest income was 126.796 billion yuan, up 2.15% year on year; non-interest net income was 69.327 billion yuan, down 7.27% year on year, and the month-on-month decline narrowed by 4.88 percentage points. In terms of revenue structure, the share of net interest income rebounded to 64.7%, an increase of 1 percentage point over mid-year. Pre-provision profit and net profit basically followed the revenue trend, and the PPOP 24Q3 decline narrowed by 2.81 percentage points. The net profit margin of the enterprise improved. The year-on-year growth rates of 24H1 and 24Q3 were -1.63% and -0.69%, respectively. The decline narrowed the net interest spread by 0.94 percentage points, reflecting strong resilience. Affected by the central bank's policy of lowering LPR and mortgage interest rates, and due to macroeconomic factors, the Bank of Communications net interest spread fell slightly to 1.28% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 1 basis point from 24H1. Against the backdrop of two-way adjustments in loan interest rates and deposit listing interest rates in the second half of this year, the pressure on interest spreads is expected to ease in the future, and revenue capacity is also expected to improve.
There has been an improvement in marginal declines in various segments of net non-interest income. The year-on-year decline in net revenue from 24Q3 fees and commissions was 0.6 percentage points narrower than 24H1 (-14.56%). The year-on-year decline in other non-interest net income was 8.53 percentage points narrower than 24H1.
Asset side: The total interest-bearing assets of the 24Q3 Bank of Communications were about 14086.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% over the previous month.
Looking at the structural breakdown, loans, financial investment, interbank, and the share of interest-bearing assets released and deposited with central banks was 58.5%, 30.0%, 6.4%, and 5.2%, respectively.
Debt side: In 24Q3, Bank of Communications's interest-bearing debt was about 11694.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9% over the previous month. In terms of debt structure, absorption of deposits, issuance of bonds, interbank loans, and loans from the central bank accounted for 74.6%, 5.5%, 16.2%, and 3.7% of interest-bearing debt, respectively.
Asset quality was generally stable, and the non-performing loan ratio remained flat month-on-month. In the first three quarters of 2024, Bank of Communications had a non-performing loan balance of 111.5 billion yuan, accounting for 1.32%. It remained unchanged from month to month, and overall asset quality was stable. In terms of provision, the company slightly lowered its provision ratio and remained within a stable range.
Profit Forecast and Valuation:
Bank of Communications 24Q3 corporate revenue and profit improved marginally, and asset quality was steady. We forecast a year-on-year increase of 0.62%, 2.27%, and 3.71% in 2024-2026, corresponding to current BPS prices: 13.42, 15.56, and 17.78 yuan. We used the dividend discount model to estimate a target price of 8.73 yuan, corresponding to 0.65x PB in 24 years, 21% of the current price space, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic shocks, sharp exposure of non-performing assets, high pressure on interest spreads
