24Q3 单独来看，营收毛利端，公司营收同比降低13.15%，毛利率同比降低5.77pct，较24H1 毛利率下滑幅度加剧，因此毛利额同比降低45.30%。费用端，期间费用率同比增加1.41pct，其中销售费用率同比增加0.15pct，管理费用率（含研发费用率）同比增加0.78pct，财务费用率同比增加0.47pct，此外所得税率为15.27%（同比降低2.69pct），因此归母净利润率同比降低4.69pct，对应最终归母净利润为0.21 亿元（YOY-51.95%）。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company discloses its report for the third quarter of 2024. 2024Q1-Q3 achieved total operating income of 1.155 billion yuan (YOY -10.36%), realized net profit due to mother 0.092 billion yuan (YOY -20.75%), and realized deduction of non-net profit of 0.081 billion yuan (YOY -29.21%). Looking at 24Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 0.383 billion yuan (YOY -13.15%), realized net profit to mother of 0.021 billion yuan (YOY -51.95%), and realized deduction of non-net profit of 0.018 billion yuan (YOY -59.61%).
Due to the decline in product sales prices, revenue/profit performance in the first three quarters was under pressure. Looking at the first three quarters of 2024, on the gross profit side, the company's revenue fell 10.36% year on year, and gross margin decreased by 2.75 pct year on year (mainly due to falling market prices of products and main raw materials, and the decline in product sales prices was greater than the decline in the price of main raw materials), so gross profit decreased by 28.14% compared to the same period last year. On the expense side, the cost ratio for the period increased by 0.60 pct year on year. Among them, the sales expense ratio increased 0.23 pct year over year, the management expense ratio (including R&D expenses rate) increased 1.03 pct year over year, and the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.66 pct year on year. Furthermore, the income tax rate was 15.96% (0.04 pct increase year on year), so the net profit margin to mother decreased by 1.31 pct year on year, corresponding to the final net profit to mother of 0.092 billion yuan (YOY -20.75%).
Looking at 24Q3 alone, on the gross profit side, the company's revenue decreased by 13.15% year on year, and gross margin decreased by 5.77 pct year on year, which was worse than the decline in 24H1 gross margin, so the gross profit amount decreased by 45.30% year on year. On the expense side, the cost ratio for the period increased by 1.41 pct year on year. Among them, the sales expense ratio increased 0.15 pct year over year, the management expense ratio (including R&D expenses rate) increased 0.78 pct year over year, and the financial expense ratio increased 0.47 pct year over year. Furthermore, the income tax rate was 15.27% (2.69 pct lower year on year), so the net profit margin to mother decreased by 4.69 pct year on year, and the corresponding final net profit to mother was 0.021 billion yuan (YOY -51.95%).
The share of organized protein revenue increased in the third quarter of a single quarter. Looking at the first three quarters of 2024, soy protein isolate/ non-genetically modified soybean oil/ textured protein/soy protein concentrate/ other products accounted for 33.08%/20.98%/15.90%/20.40%/9.63%, respectively; in 24Q3 alone, soy protein/ungenetically modified soybean oil/textured protein/soy concentrated protein/other products accounted for 33.34%/19.38%/17.55%/19.44%/10.29%, respectively. Furthermore, the company's dealers continued to expand in the first three quarters of 2024, with 251/139 domestic/overseas dealer customers respectively (an increase of 24/21, respectively).
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.602/1.764/1.972 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.127/0.163/0.187 billion yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.66/0.85/0.98 yuan/share, respectively. Based on the comparable company valuation situation, the company was given a PE (2025E) valuation range of 20-25 times, and the corresponding reasonable value range was 17.00-21.25 yuan/share, continuing to be given a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. (1) Food safety risks, (2) downstream demand falls short of expectations, (3) market competition intensifies, (4) new products, new channels, and new market expansion fall short of expectations, and (5) fluctuations in upstream raw material cost prices and cost investment.
