单票归母0.06 元/票，盈利持续改善。24Q3 公司实现营业收入122.6 亿元，同比+8.8%；管理费用3.1 亿元，管理费用率2.5%，同比下降0.5pp；归母净利润3.7 亿元，同比+24.3%，单票归母净利润0.06 元，同比+0.4%；扣非归母净利润3.4 亿元，同比+88.5%，单票扣非归母净利润0.06 元，同比+52.3%，单票盈利能力持续修复。Key points of investment:
Incident: Yunda Co., Ltd. announced the 2024Q3 results. The 24Q3 company achieved operating income of 12.26 billion yuan, +8.8% year over year; net profit to mother 0.37 billion yuan, +24.3% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.34 billion yuan, +88.5% year over year. Overall, 24Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 35.51 billion yuan, +8.1% year over year, net profit to mother of 1.41 billion yuan, +20.9% year on year, net profit of 1.17 billion yuan after deducting non-return net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, or +20.9% year on year.
Volume growth continues to exceed expectations, and prices are under pressure. Volume: 2023Q3's express delivery business volume was 6.02 billion units, +23.7% year over year, market share was 13.8%, year over year -0.7pp; 24Q1-Q3 company's express delivery business volume was 16.94 billion units, +27.7% year on year, market share 13.7%, -0.5pp year on year. Price: 2024Q3 company ASP (operating data caliber) is 1.99 yuan, -10.4% year over year; 24Q1-Q3 company ASP is 2.07 yuan/ticket.
A single ticket returned 0.06 yuan/ticket, and profits continued to improve. 24Q3 achieved operating income of 12.26 billion yuan, +8.8% year on year; management expenses of 0.31 billion yuan, management expense ratio of 2.5%, down 0.5pp; net profit to mother 0.37 billion yuan, +24.3% year on year, net profit from single vote 0.06 yuan, +0.4% year on year; net profit without return to mother 0.34 billion yuan, +88.5% year on year, single vote profitability continued to recover.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Demand growth in the express delivery industry exceeded expectations in 2024, and 24Q3 Yunda's performance continued to improve. Considering that in 24 years, under the influence of “small packaging”, industry demand continued to grow at medium to high speed, and the final business environment improved. The restoration and improvement of the company's comprehensive service capacity will continue to help improve the cost and cost side of the company, continue to realize its operating strength in terms of profit, maintain the company's net profit of 2/2.3/2.8 billion yuan to mother in 24/25/26, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of industry demand recovery falling short of expectations; risk of price war intensification; risk of rising oil prices.
