On November 6th, with the 2024 US presidential election entering its final hours, the globally anticipated voting time has finally arrived! Compared to the dullness of election day during the day, the wildest moments of the US election truly begin as the sun sets.

First and foremost, for investors in the Asia-Pacific region, the trading session on Wednesday will be inundated with a massive amount of news about the American elections—whether there will be clear signals by the closing time is still uncertain.

When will the polling stations in each state close?

The key points of election coverage start from the closure of polling stations in various places. News about exit polls and vote counts will also be released to the public at that time.

From the map, states generally close polling stations from east to west. Based on Eastern Time in the US, after 7 p.m. (8 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday), the first batch of states entirely in the vote counting phase will emerge. Some areas in Indiana and Kentucky will close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time (7 p.m. Beijing time), at which time the first election results will be revealed.

(Polling station closing schedule for each state, source: CNN)

The specific closing times for polling stations in each state have been detailed by Caijing社 previously in the article 'Guide to Watching the US Presidential Election: Key States' Elections Unusually Close Which State Results Can Be Expected?' so there is no need to elaborate further.

Here, the focus is on 7 swing states, with closing times ranging from 8 a.m. Beijing time (Georgia) to 11 a.m. (Nevada).

It is important to emphasize that the closing of polling stations is not the same as confirming the winner of the state. Some traditionally strong states may announce a winner shortly after counting begins, but these areas do not determine the election results.

When will we know who the winner is?

During the 2020 election, major U.S. media didn't declare Biden's victory until November 7, 4 days after election day (November 3).

The turning point was when Pennsylvania and Nevada confirmed the election results, giving Biden the necessary electoral votes for victory. Arizona announced results on November 12, North Carolina on November 13, while Georgia, needing a recount, confirmed the results on November 19.

Clearly, the election results are not confirmed by the media, but for institutions like the Associated Press, CNN, NBC, ABC, Fox News, this is the traditional show of the election year where their reputations are at stake.

David Scott, Head of News Strategy and Operations at the Associated Press, explained: "The standard for declaring a winner is absolute certainty. We won't declare a winner until we are 100% sure the trailing candidate cannot catch up."

Overall, compared to the 2020 election, due to the expanded mail-in voting efforts in multiple swing states or the earlier cut-off dates for mail-in ballots, the results are likely to be available earlier this year.

According to local institutions' forecast, Michigan and Wisconsin are expected to announce the results within 24 hours after the end of voting, the same as in 2020; Pennsylvania will be faster, taking 4 days last time; the remaining four swing states, the timing of announcing results will be 'the same or faster' as in 2020.

In other words, if by Wednesday afternoon these swing states' vote counting results are still highly contested, it may be very difficult to have a result within the day.

Background: Simple observation guide for the 7 major swing states

Arizona: Polling stations close at 7 pm local time (9 pm Eastern Time, 10 am Wednesday Beijing Time). The state allows for processing and counting of mail-in ballots before Election Day, but results need to wait until an hour after the polling stations close. If the votes between the two candidates are very close, waiting for heavily populated counties to finish counting might take several days.

If the voting margin between the two candidates is less than or equal to 0.5 percentage points, an automatic recount will be triggered. The state does not allow for a recount to be requested.

Georgia: Polling stations close at 7 pm Eastern Time. The state allows for processing of mail-in ballots before Election Day, with most results expected to be announced on Election night, but the final result might take a few days. According to state law, if the margin of votes between the two candidates is within 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount.

It is worth noting that, according to the latest news, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stated that due to 'unsubstantiated bomb threats' briefly disrupting voting, around 10 polling stations in 'minority' counties in Georgia will extend their opening hours, possibly by 20 to 40 minutes.

On the morning of the same day, Georgia received multiple "untrustworthy bomb threat reports," resulting in the temporary evacuation of multiple polling places. The polling stations in Georgia were originally scheduled to close at 19:00 on November 5th Eastern Time (8:00 on November 6th Peking Time).

Michigan: Polling stations close at 8 pm Eastern Time. If the margin between candidates is within 2000 votes, an automatic recount will be triggered.

Nevada: Polling stations close at 10 pm Eastern Time. As one of the states conducting all-mail elections, Nevada's election commission needs to complete ballot counting by November 15th. Any candidate can request a recount before November 18th, and the recount process must be completed by November 24th.

North Carolina: The polling station closes at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time. In the case of a vote difference of less than 0.5% between two candidates, if a candidate formally requests a recount, it will trigger a mandatory recount.

Pennsylvania: The polling stations close at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. The state only allows the processing of mail-in ballots to begin after 7 a.m. on Election Day, and it is expected to take several days to completely tally. If the count shows a candidate difference of less than 0.5%, a recount will be automatically triggered.

Wisconsin: The polling stations close at 9 p.m. Eastern Time. Generally, except for the largest city, Milwaukee, the state's election situation should be clear within two to two and a half hours after the polls close. If the election results show a difference of within 1%, a candidate can request a recount.

Editor/Somer