As of the press time, the three major US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow up 0.44%, the Nasdaq up 1%, and the s&p 500 index up 0.72%.

The 2024 US presidential election is undoubtedly the focus of the market today.

The latest polls show that the competition between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is still neck-and-neck, and the voting results could be very close, with the possibility of controversial outcomes implying that the vote count may last for several days or even weeks.

Given that a Republican or Democratic sweep (referring to simultaneous control of both houses of Congress) could lead to drastic changes in spending or major reforms in tax policies, people are still closely watching which party will dominate in Congress.

Analysts believe that Trump's stance on immigration, tax cuts, and trade policies may boost inflation, drive up bond yields and the US dollar, while Harris is seen as a candidate to continue current policies.

Morgan Stanley analysts stated in their report: "The US election ultimately boils down to one thing - whether voters want to support the continuity of economic policies, institutional stability, and liberal democracy (Harris), or choose radical trade policies, further globalization retreat, and strongman politics (Trump)."

The election results may have a significant impact on the US stock market by the end of 2024. However, investors also need to prepare for short-term fluctuations.

Data shows that since 1980, from election day to the end of the presidential election year, the three major US stock indexes have all shown increases on average, but investors should not expect the stock market to rise in a straight line after the election - there is usually a decline on election day and in the week following.

The uncertainty of the US election results may increase the volatility of the US stock market. However, from a longer-term perspective, election years are usually favorable for the US stock market.

Since 1960, the S&P 500 index has risen in almost every election year. The only exceptions were in 2000 and 2008, which were respectively affected by the bursting of the internet bubble and the financial crisis. In the most recent election cycle, this record looks even better.

Adam Parker, the founder of Trivariate Research, said: "The overall tone still leans towards the positive side, the US stock market bull market remains intact, unless we see new government policies that appear to be more restrictive."

Renowned short seller and JPMorgan strategist Michael Wilson said that with pressure released from investors after the US presidential election ends, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment kicking in towards the end of 2024, the S&P 500 index may continue to rise in the final stages of 2024.

He mentioned that by the end of 2024, the S&P 500 index might reach 6,000 points and could potentially rise further to a high of 6,100 points. However, this year "under any circumstances" will not exceed this level, as valuations are too high, and by 2025, growth is unlikely to accelerate, and P/E ratios are unlikely to further expand.

In addition to the US presidential election, investors are also focusing on the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting this week and announce the interest rate decision on Thursday. Fed Chair Powell will comment on the central bank's future policy measures.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders expect a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this time. In September this year, the Fed announced a significant half-point rate cut, initiating this round of rate cuts.

In terms of corporate financial reports, Palantir's stock price soared, as the company previously announced strong quarterly performance and issued an optimistic revenue forecast.

NXP Semiconductors' stock price fell as the company's third-quarter performance declined and it issued a pessimistic outlook for the fourth quarter.

Focus stocks

Growth tech stocks collectively rose, with tesla up nearly 4%, taiwan semiconductor up nearly 3%, and nvidia up nearly 2%.

China concept stocks generally rose, with xpeng, Bilibili up over 5%, Alibaba, jd.com up over 1%.

"Trump trades" rebounded across the board. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Surging over 13%, cryptos-related stocks collectively rose. $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Rise more than 7%, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Up more than 3%.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Rising nearly 4%, the market is watching the impact of the US presidential election results on Tesla. Analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush gave the stock a 'buy' rating and a target price of $300.

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$ After the performance soared nearly 20%, the company's third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, and it raised its full-year performance guidance.

Semiconductors connectivity solution company $Astera Labs (ALAB.US)$ Soared over 31%, Q3 fiscal revenue increased by 206%.

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