Source: Wall Street See

As the US presidential election enters the final sprint stage, Wall Street is eagerly making final bets.

Specifically, in the past period, the most crowded election trades have been long positions on the US dollar, DJT, bitcoin, and some US stock thematic stocks, with short positions on US Treasury bonds.

Currently, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds has rebounded by about 70 basis points from its recent low, the US dollar has also rebounded by 3.3% from its low point, bitcoin fell after reaching a historical high last week, bank stocks and clean energy stocks have respectively risen and fallen by about 5% in the past month, but both reversed course on Monday, with DJT rising over 180% since its low point.

US Treasury bond yields

Public information shows that Trump's economic proposals are expected to significantly increase the federal fiscal deficit, potentially reigniting US 're-inflation risks,' theoretically putting pressure on US Treasuries and supporting a stronger US dollar if Trump is elected.

With the increasing probability of Donald Trump winning in the past few weeks, $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ Rapidly upsurging, currently at 4.327%, with a cumulative increase of about 70 basis points since the low point on September 16, almost wiping out the cumulative decline since June.

Visa Europe's payment volume was $371 billion. The previous year's financial report for Visa did not include European operations.

In addition to the inflation risks that may arise from increased deficits, Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy advocacy may also boost the US dollar to some extent.

Economists believe that significantly raising import tariffs will lead to reduced spending by American consumers on imported goods, thereby boosting the appreciation of the US dollar.

$USD (USDindex.FX)$ The trend is roughly similar to the trend of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, welcoming a strong uptrend since October, with a vigorous rebound of 3.3% since the low point on September 27, currently at 103.74.

Bitcoin

In sharp contrast to Biden's crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry, both Trump and Harris have expressed support for crypto assets, with Trump even vowing to make the USA the "global crypto capital".

Bitcoin has been trading in a wide range of fluctuations in the past six months, with a cumulative increase of 27.3% in the past three months. Last week, it once reached a historical high, but quickly fell below 0.07 million US dollars, now trading at 0.069 million US dollars per coin.

Clean energy stocks and bank stocks

Some traders predict that if Donald Trump takes office in the White House, he will cancel the Biden administration's tax incentives for clean energy, which will seriously impact clean energy stocks; there are also opinions that, as Harris advocates increasing corporate taxes and intensifying financial regulations, if she is elected, it may affect bank stocks.

In the past six months,$KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (.BKX.US)$ cumulative increase of over 15%, $iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN.US)$ The index has fallen by over 3%, with increases and decreases of about 5% in the past month. This Monday, both trends reversed, with the nasdaq banks index falling by over 1% intraday, while BlackRock's global clean energy ETF rose by over 2% intraday.

Donald Trump Media Technology Group stocks (DJT)

As a media technology company mainly controlled by Donald Trump, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ it can be said to be a pure Donald Trump concept stock, the most direct option for investors betting on Trump's victory.

Analysts state that considering DJT has virtually no profits at the performance level, its stock price trend is unrelated to the company's fundamentals, and it can be considered a meme stock.

上周，在散户爆买推动下，DJT盘中五次触发熔断临停，自9月23日的低点以来强劲反弹逾182.6%，今年以来其股价几乎翻番，当前市值已经超过纽约时报。

Editor / jayden