Before the USA election, the top five busiest trades.

wallstreetcn · Nov 5 22:18

来源：华尔街见闻

10年期美债收益率已较阶段低点反弹约70bp，美元也较低点反弹3.3%，比特币于上周触及历史高点后回落，银行股和清洁能源股近一个月来分别上涨和下跌约5%，但周一走势双双反转，DJT自低点以来上涨逾180%。

随着美国大选进入最后的冲刺阶段，华尔街正在竞相进行最后的押注。

具体来看，过去一段时间里，做多美元、DJT、比特币以及美股部分主题股票，做空美债是最拥挤的大选交易。

目前，10年期美债收益率已较阶段低点反弹约70bp，美元也较低点反弹3.3%，比特币于上周触及历史高点后回落，银行股和清洁能源股近一个月来分别上涨和下跌约5%，但周一走势双双反转，DJT自低点以来上涨逾180%。

美债收益率

公开信息显示，特朗普的经济主张料将大幅增加联邦财政赤字，或重燃美国“再通胀风险”，因此特朗普当选理论上使美债承压、支撑美元走强。

随着近几周来特朗普胜选概率升温， $美国10年期国债收益率 (US10Y.BD)$ 迅速上攀，现报4.327%，自9月16日的低点以来累计上行约70bp，几乎抹去6月以来的累计跌幅。

美元

除了赤字增加可能带来的通胀风险，特朗普激进的关税政策主张也可能在一定程度上提振美元。

经济学家表示，大幅提高进口关税将使美国消费者减少对进口商品的支出，进而推升美元升值。

$美元指数 (USDindex.FX)$ 走势和10年期美债收益率的走势大致一致，10月以来迎来一波强劲上涨，自9月27日的低点以来强劲反弹3.3%，现报103.74。

比特币

与拜登对加密行业的打击态度形成鲜明对比，特朗普和哈里斯均对加密资产持支持立场，特朗普此前还曾誓言要让美国成为“全球加密之都”。

比特币近半年来走势宽幅震荡，近三个月累计上涨27.3%，上周一度触及历史新高，但很快回落至7万美元下方，现报6.9万美元/枚。

清洁能源股和银行股

有交易员预计，如果特朗普入主白宫，将取消拜登政府对清洁能源的税收优惠政策，这将重挫清洁能源股；还有观点认为，由于哈里斯主张增收企业税并加大金融监管力度，如果她当选可能会打击银行股。

半年以来，$KBW银行指数 (.BKX.US)$ 累计上涨逾15%， $环球清洁能源ETF-iShares (ICLN.US)$ 则累计下跌逾3%，近一个月来则分别上涨和下跌约5%，本周一走势双双出现反转，纳斯达克银行指数日内跌逾1%，贝莱德全球清洁能源ETF则日内涨超2%。

特朗普媒体科技集团个股（DJT）

作为特朗普主要控股的媒体科技公司， $特朗普媒体科技集团 (DJT.US)$ 可以说是“纯种特朗普概念股”，是投资者押注特朗普胜选的最直接选项。

分析称，考虑到DJT在业绩层面几乎没有盈利，因此其股价走势和公司基本面无关，可以将其视作迷因股（meme stocks）。

上周，在散户爆买推动下，DJT盘中五次触发熔断临停，自9月23日的低点以来强劲反弹逾182.6%，今年以来其股价几乎翻番，当前市值已经超过纽约时报。

编辑/jayden

Source: Wall Street See

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded by about 70 basis points from the recent low, while the U.S. dollar has also rebounded by 3.3% from its low point. Bitcoin fell after hitting a historical high last week, with bank stocks and clean energy stocks rising and falling by about 5% respectively in the past month, but both reversed course on Monday. DJT has risen over 180% since its low point.

As the US presidential election enters the final sprint stage, Wall Street is eagerly making final bets.

Specifically, in the past period, the most crowded election trades have been long positions on the US dollar, DJT, bitcoin, and some US stock thematic stocks, with short positions on US Treasury bonds.

Currently, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds has rebounded by about 70 basis points from its recent low, the US dollar has also rebounded by 3.3% from its low point, bitcoin fell after reaching a historical high last week, bank stocks and clean energy stocks have respectively risen and fallen by about 5% in the past month, but both reversed course on Monday, with DJT rising over 180% since its low point.

US Treasury bond yields

Public information shows that Trump's economic proposals are expected to significantly increase the federal fiscal deficit, potentially reigniting US 're-inflation risks,' theoretically putting pressure on US Treasuries and supporting a stronger US dollar if Trump is elected.

With the increasing probability of Donald Trump winning in the past few weeks, $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ Rapidly upsurging, currently at 4.327%, with a cumulative increase of about 70 basis points since the low point on September 16, almost wiping out the cumulative decline since June.

Visa Europe's payment volume was $371 billion. The previous year's financial report for Visa did not include European operations.

In addition to the inflation risks that may arise from increased deficits, Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy advocacy may also boost the US dollar to some extent.

Economists believe that significantly raising import tariffs will lead to reduced spending by American consumers on imported goods, thereby boosting the appreciation of the US dollar.

$USD (USDindex.FX)$ The trend is roughly similar to the trend of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, welcoming a strong uptrend since October, with a vigorous rebound of 3.3% since the low point on September 27, currently at 103.74.

Bitcoin

In sharp contrast to Biden's crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry, both Trump and Harris have expressed support for crypto assets, with Trump even vowing to make the USA the "global crypto capital".

Bitcoin has been trading in a wide range of fluctuations in the past six months, with a cumulative increase of 27.3% in the past three months. Last week, it once reached a historical high, but quickly fell below 0.07 million US dollars, now trading at 0.069 million US dollars per coin.

Clean energy stocks and bank stocks

Some traders predict that if Donald Trump takes office in the White House, he will cancel the Biden administration's tax incentives for clean energy, which will seriously impact clean energy stocks; there are also opinions that, as Harris advocates increasing corporate taxes and intensifying financial regulations, if she is elected, it may affect bank stocks.

In the past six months,$KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (.BKX.US)$ cumulative increase of over 15%, $iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN.US)$ The index has fallen by over 3%, with increases and decreases of about 5% in the past month. This Monday, both trends reversed, with the nasdaq banks index falling by over 1% intraday, while BlackRock's global clean energy ETF rose by over 2% intraday.

Donald Trump Media Technology Group stocks (DJT)

As a media technology company mainly controlled by Donald Trump, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ it can be said to be a pure Donald Trump concept stock, the most direct option for investors betting on Trump's victory.

Analysts state that considering DJT has virtually no profits at the performance level, its stock price trend is unrelated to the company's fundamentals, and it can be considered a meme stock.

上周，在散户爆买推动下，DJT盘中五次触发熔断临停，自9月23日的低点以来强劲反弹逾182.6%，今年以来其股价几乎翻番，当前市值已经超过纽约时报。

Editor / jayden

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美国大选前，最拥挤的五大交易