On November 5, Eastern Time, the United States officially held the 60th presidential election. Incumbent Vice President Harris will formally compete against former President Trump. At the same time, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 seats in the Senate will also be up for reelection.

This election is bound to make history: if Harris wins, she will become the first female president in US history and the first US president of Asian descent. If Trump wins, he will become the first president since Grover Cleveland in the 1890s to be elected twice non-consecutively.

For the financial markets, the situation is not that simple. Investors not only need to see who will take over the White House but also consider who controls Congress.

The 2024 US presidential election may result in four main outcomes (victories for two candidates, combined with different control of Congress), each of which may have different impacts on global financial markets. Specifically, there are scenarios for a red sweep (Trump and the Republican Party both win), a blue sweep (Harris and the Democratic Party both win), Harris wins with a divided Congress, and Trump wins with a divided Congress.

From the perspective of the gambling market, the probabilities are as follows: Red Line: the highest probability is for a red sweep (Trump and the Republican Party both win) at 39%; Purple Line: Harris wins with a divided Congress has a 26% probability; Blue Line: a blue sweep (Harris and the Democratic Party both win) has a 16% probability; Green Line: Trump wins with a divided Congress has a 14% probability.

According to research reports from various institutions such as Minsheng Securities, under different outcomes, various types of assets and benefiting sectors will see certain differences as follows:

Mike Wilson, Chief US Stock Strategist at Morgan Stanley, recently stated that despite polls showing a tight race, the market is still leaning towards a victory for Donald Trump and a Republican sweep of Congress. In this scenario, if US bond yields remain stable, cyclical stocks will perform well; however, if bond yields spike significantly, tariff-sensitive consumer stocks will decline. However, as the election day approaches, the possibility of a Harris victory and a divided Congress is also increasing, in which case, consumer stocks affected by tariffs and renewable energy stocks will perform well.

"The big show" is about to begin, get your "program" ready

Due to the unique electoral college system in the USA, and the stable "base" of both parties, most states play a ceremonial role in the elections. Some so-called "Swing States" with unclear stances and tight races become crucial in determining the outcome of the election.

This year, there are 7 swing states in the United States, with a total of 93 electoral votes: the 'blue wall' states in the north - Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes); the 'sun belt' states in the south - Georgia (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Nevada (6 votes).

The seven key states that will have the greatest impact on the presidential election results will close polling stations from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. Eastern Time in the USA (8 a.m. to 11 a.m. on November 6 in Peking time). With the release of state statistics, the final results are expected to be announced as early as around 12 p.m. in Peking time.

It is worth noting that Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, has become the 'tipping point' of this election.

In other words, this year's US presidential election is essentially an election in Pennsylvania - whoever wins Pennsylvania wins it all.

Therefore, Futu News outlined the paths to victory for both sides in the event of Donald Trump or Harris winning or losing Pennsylvania for mooer reference.

Trump VS Harris, how should investors deal with the election market?

As the competition between Trump and Harris intensifies, market sentiment is becoming increasingly tense.

It is widely believed in the current market that due to Trump's current position, he supports traditional energy, infrastructure construction policies; whereas if Harris takes office, there is a tendency towards welfare policies, cannabis legalization, green energy, US export growth, housing support, etc.

It is worth noting that market views believe that both the inauguration of Donald Trump and Harris are bullish for cryptos and gold.

Previously, Harris promised to support the regulatory framework for digital currencies, and options traders have been increasing their bets: regardless of who wins the U.S. election,Bitcoin (BTC.CC)Expected to reach $0.08 million by the end of November, hitting a record high.

Speaking of gold, the head of commodity strategy at Sangbao Bank stated that geopolitical risks, the US debt crisis, and shifts in monetary policy together form the reasons why gold, as a hard asset, is considered bullish. Whether it is Trump or Harris who wins the November US election, gold comes out as the winner.

Futu News also summarized some$Donald Trump concept stocks (BK22962.US)$, for reference by Mooers:

Among them, Donald Trump concept stocks include $Trump Media & Technology Group(DJT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Phunware (PHUN.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Rumble (RUM.US)$ ;

Financial stocks include $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Bank of AmericaPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Evercore (EVR.US)$ ;

Traditional energy companies include $Cheniere Energy (LNG.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Sony(6758.JP)$ rose nearly 2% before the market opened, and its semiconductor division will cut spending by 30% over the next three years.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature., Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Peabody Energy (BTU.US)$ ;

Insurance companies include $UnitedHealth Group (UNH.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Humana (HUM.US)$ ;

Biopharmaceutical companies include $Eli Lilly and Co(LLY.US)$ rose 1.52%, with a turnover of 2.1 billion US dollars. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) analyzed the trial data of Eli Lilly's experimental Alzheimer's drug donanemab and found that it did not show significant safety signals, but also raised concerns about the safety of the drug in early patient treatment.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Merck (MRK.US) ;

Cryptocurrency concept stocks include $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CleanSpark(CLSK.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Coinbase.and$MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$ Wait;

Companies benefiting from "trade protection" include $Intel(INTC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Texas Instruments (TXN.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Intel fell by 1.8%, with declines of more than 2% during trading. Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.andPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$General Motors (GM.US)$. Wait;

Agricultural equipment companies include $Tractor Supply Company (TSCO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Deere & Company(DE.US)$ ;

Including the world's richest underdog Elon Musk, who openly supports Donald Trump $Tesla (TSLA.US)$.

In addition, $Harris concept stocks (LIST22990.US)$ 如下：

Among them, clean energy stocks include $First Solar (FSLR.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ fell nearly 9%. On the news front, JPMorgan lowered its target price for SolarEdge Technologies from $73 to $59. The bank said that demand for solar energy in European residences is still relatively weak, due to high channel inventory, low electricity pricing, and recent uncertainties related to elections. JPMorgan also lowered its target price for solar energy company Enphase Energy from $128 to $124.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Nextracker (NXT.US)$ ;

electric vehicle stocks include $Ford Motor (F.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$General Motors (GM.US)$.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$ ;

Consumer stocks include $Amazon (AMZN.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Walmart (WMT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Costco (COST.US)$ ;

Cryptocurrency concept stocks include $MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Coinbase.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Marathon Digital(MARA.US)$ ;

Real estate stocks include $ D.R. Horton (DHI.US) $ rose more than 10% this week,Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Lennar Corp (LEN.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ NVR Inc (NVR.US) $ ;

Cannabis stocks include $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (RDY.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.tilray brands (TLRY.US).

US election is in a close race! How to track related concept stocks? Open Tuniu > US stocks.Investment themes> Quickly identify Donald Trump concept stocks / Kamala Harris concept stocks!

Editor/Somer