CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 26% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Of course, over the longer-term many would still wish they owned shares as the stock's price has soared 254% in the last twelve months.

Following the heavy fall in price, CareDx's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 4.1x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Biotechs industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 13x and even P/S above 73x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/S.

How Has CareDx Performed Recently?

CareDx could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For CareDx?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, CareDx would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 4.0% decrease to the company's top line. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 17% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 15% each year during the coming three years according to the eight analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 130% per year growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we can see why CareDx is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Final Word

CareDx's P/S looks about as weak as its stock price lately. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As expected, our analysis of CareDx's analyst forecasts confirms that the company's underwhelming revenue outlook is a major contributor to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. The company will need a change of fortune to justify the P/S rising higher in the future.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for CareDx you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.