With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 28x O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
Recent times have been pleasing for O'Reilly Automotive as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For O'Reilly Automotive?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as O'Reilly Automotive's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.4%. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see EPS up by 42% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 11% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.
In light of this, it's curious that O'Reilly Automotive's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of O'Reilly Automotive's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with O'Reilly Automotive (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored).
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on O'Reilly Automotive, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
