替代电量确认节奏影响单季度业绩表现，投资收益扰动业绩。一方面，今年替代电量提前执行使得公司二季度业绩高增，同时一定程度上也影响了三季度的业绩表现，本质上为业绩确认节奏的问题。另一方面，24 年第三季度公司实现投资净收益为2.85 亿元，较去年同期3.85 亿元同比下滑约1 亿元，投资收益的下滑一定程度上影响了业绩。Matters:
In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.82 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%; in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.485 billion, an increase of 1.22% year-on-year. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved net profit of 0.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%; in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.773 billion yuan, an increase of 8.38% over the previous year.
Commentary:
The pace of electricity replacement confirmation affects single-quarter performance, and investment income disrupts performance. On the one hand, the early implementation of electricity replacements this year led to a high increase in the company's performance in the second quarter. At the same time, it also affected the third quarter's performance to a certain extent. It was essentially a matter of the pace of performance confirmation. On the other hand, the company achieved a net investment income of 0.285 billion yuan in the third quarter of '24, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.1 billion yuan compared to 0.385 billion yuan in the same period last year. The decline in investment income affected performance to a certain extent.
The overall power generation is stable, and thermal power is under pressure. The company completed 6.464 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation in the third quarter of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.51%; completed feed-in power generation of 6.15 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 3.35%.
Among them, the ocean wind performance is stable, and coal-fired units are greatly affected. Seafeng/landwind/coal-fired thermal power generation in the third quarter of 2024 was 0.598/0.419/1.473 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, -1.41%/-1.24%/-20.19% compared with the same period last year. Because the third quarter is a light wind season, wind power hardly fluctuates much, and the level of power generation is basically stable; due to the influence of the relationship between electricity supply and demand, the output of thermal power units declined to a certain extent in the third quarter. The overall electricity performance was stable, with a cumulative total of 17.623 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 0.37% over the previous year; the cumulative completed feed-in power generation was 16.758 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 0.47% over the previous year.
Optimistic about the current configuration value. Recently, the stock price of Zhongmin Energy has clearly rebounded, but the stock price of Funeng shares, which also belongs to the development of Haifeng in Fujian, is still fluctuating. It is speculated that there are the following reasons: first, the company has a large installed capacity and high profit volume, which is slightly lower in terms of long-term flexibility; second, the company is a comprehensive power operator, and the thermal power industry is currently under pressure, which has affected the company's stock price trend to a certain extent. However, at present, we are still optimistic about the development prospects of Funeng Co., Ltd.: First, the company's future thermal power and new energy installations can still deliver incremental profits; second, judging from the company's performance structure, new energy's profit share is relatively high, and the market has overestimated the disturbance that thermal power causes to performance to a certain extent.
Investment advice: Sea breeze ushered in industry catalysis, and the new project will open up space for the company to grow after it is launched. Considering the current actual operating situation, we adjusted our profit expectations. We expect to achieve net profit of about 2.944/3.132/3.437 billion yuan from 24 to 26, with growth rates of +12.2%/+6.4%/+9.7%, respectively. We will give 12xPE in 25 years, corresponding to a market capitalization of 37.6 billion yuan and a target price of 14 yuan, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: The incoming wind from sea and land winds fell short of expectations, the risk of falling electricity prices, and electricity substitutions fell short of expectations.
