In fact, the rate of winning the lottery is too low.

In October of this year, with the large-cap A-share market experiencing a surge, the new stock market has completely boiled over!

According to statistics from Gelunhui, in October 2024, all 11 new stocks listed on the A-share market on the first day of listing closed higher, with an average increase of over 6 times.

Among them, the new stock of the GEM sector, Qiangbang new material, had an issue price of 9.68 yuan per share. On the first day of listing, the intraday price soared to 245 yuan per share, and the closing price on the first day surged by 1739% to 178.01 yuan, ranking first in this year's new stock first-day gainers list. With a winning rate of 500 shares, you could earn more than 0.11 million yuan.

In addition to Qiangbang new material, October of this year also saw the emergence of Shangda Shares, Top Cloud Farming, and other new stocks that rose by 10 times and 8 times on their first day of listing, frequently referred to as 'big winning lotteries'.

In fact, the returns from participating in new stock offerings in the A-share market in the first 10 months of 2024 have been very impressive. Out of 80 new stocks, only 1 broke below the issue price on the first day of listing, 1 closed flat, and all the other new stocks rose on the first day of listing.

It can be seen that in the A-share market, if one can successfully participate in new stock offerings and sell on the first day of listing, the probability of making money is high, almost equivalent to 'earning as soon as you grab it'.

Under the influence of policies optimizing the issuance and underwriting system, strict regulation of high pricing and over-allotment, the issue price of new stocks has been trending downward this year, with new stocks having a price-earnings ratio lower than the industry average.

Among the 80 new listed stocks in the first 10 months of this year, 67 had a price-earnings ratio lower than the industry average, accounting for over 81%, which also reserved room for a rise after listing, attracting investors and reducing the risk of breaking issuance.

Looking at different sectors, from January to October 2024, the bse had the lowest first issue price-earnings ratio (diluted) for listed new stocks, averaging only 15.78 times; the main board and gem were 20.04 times and 21.03 times respectively, while even the star board saw the average first issue price-earnings ratio fall to around 28 times.

Due to the limited number of new listings this year, the overall allotment rate is not high, with many investors expressing the difficulty of getting allocations in the A-share market for new listings!

Indeed, Wind data shows that in the first 10 months of 2024, the highest online allotment rate was only 0.5% for Ruihua Technology, and the average online allotment rate for new listings on the bse with high threshold for IPO was only 0.11%, even lower for listings on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Faced with such low allotment rates, most investors can only watch from the sidelines.

Some investors who did not subscribe to new stocks may rush in on the first day of listing, but such operations carry a high risk because many new stocks will continue to decline after the initial sharp rise on the first day of listing.

From January to October 2024, 80 new stocks listed on the A-share market had an average first-day increase of over 222%. However, they continued to decline from the second day to the fifth day after listing. Therefore, it is important not to get too involved in speculation on new stocks, and in the long run, it is still essential to pay attention to the company's fundamentals.

However, since August this year, there has been a trend of increasing the number of new stocks listed on the A-share market each month. If the number of new stocks listed in the future continues to increase, then the chances of getting allotted new shares may also improve.

Overall, against the backdrop of a slowdown in IPO issuance pace and strict scrutiny at the entry point, the number of new stock issuances in the A-share market has decreased significantly this year, with the amount raised also greatly reduced. In the first ten months of 2024, a total of approximately 52.8 billion yuan was raised by 80 new stocks listed on the A-share market, marking a stark contrast to the previous years' boom of 300-500 new stock listings annually.

The overall scale of funds raised by new A-share listed companies this year is not considered large. In the first ten months of 2024, the highest amount of funds raised from initial offerings was only around 2.43 billion yuan by Yongxing Securities.

At the same time, the average fundraising size of new stocks on the Star Market and the main board does not exceed 1.1 billion yuan, while that of the Growth Enterprise Market is around 0.6 billion yuan, and the Beijing Stock Exchange is less than 0.2 billion yuan. The situation of shrinking fundraising by IPO companies is also quite common.

In terms of listing issuance expenses, in the first 10 months of this year, among the new companies listed on A-shares, Energom Company had the highest first-time issuance expenses at approximately 0.238 billion yuan, while companies like Nova Nebula, Longqi Technology, and Shanghai Hejing all had issuance expenses exceeding 0.1 billion yuan.

Overall, among the various sectors of A-shares, the Beijing Stock Exchange has lower first-time issuance expenses, averaging around 23.75 million yuan; the Star Market is relatively high at an average of about 95.05 million yuan; the main board and the Growth Enterprise Market have average first-time issuance expenses of approximately 85.68 million yuan and 72.46 million yuan respectively.

In terms of sponsoring institutions, among the 80 new stocks listed on the A-share market from January to October 2024, CSC and CITIC Securities each sponsored 8 companies, tied for first place; Haitong Securities sponsored 7 companies, ranking second; Minsheng Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, and Huatai United Securities each had 6 companies listed, tied for third.

In terms of audit institutions, Rongcheng audited a total of 21 IPO listed companies, ranking first in the number of audit projects; Tianjian and Lixin audited 9 companies each, tied for second place; Zhonghui audited 7 companies, ranking third.

Among the law firms listing the most projects in the same period, Beijing Zhong Lun provided legal services to a total of 8 IPO listed companies; Jin Tian Cheng in Shanghai and King & Wood Mallesons in Beijing served 7 and 6 companies respectively, ranking in the top three.

Looking at the industry breakdown, the majority of companies listed on the A-share market in the first 10 months of this year are from the industrial machinery industry, reaching 11; the electronic components industry ranks second with 10 companies; at the same time, the basic chemical industry, semiconductor products, electrical components and equipment, as well as the automotive parts and equipment industry, all have over 5 listed companies, ranking high.

In the period from January to October 2024, Shanghai added 8 new A-share listed companies, ranking first; Shenzhen added 6 companies, coming in second; Changzhou, Dongguan, Suzhou, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Huzhou all made it to the top 10 in terms of new listings.

The high number of newly listed companies reflects the strong economic strength and active market environment of these cities. They also have certain advantages in innovation capability, business environment, and are conducive to attracting and retaining more talents.