欧洲收入确认错期扰动，营收增速环比降速。24 Q1-Q3 公司实现收入70.1 亿元，同比+23.2%，其中单Q3 收入25.9 亿元，同比+11.9%，营收增速环比仍有降速。分区域看，扫地机品类在国补政策加持下三季度表现逐月改善，根据奥维云网数据，24Q3 国内扫地机品类销售同比+15.4%，考虑到石头在P20 Pro等新品带动下市占率持续提升，以及抖音等渠道开拓，我们预计公司内销收入增速或优于行业。海外市场方面，公司在美国Target、Best buy 等线下渠道加速拓展，叠加三季度亚马逊Prime Day 大促催化，我们预计收入表现或有较高增长。欧洲市场公司销售模式由经销代理逐步转为自营，过去经销模式下四季度促销旺季需提前出货，因此部分收入确认至Q3，而自营模式下公司无需提前备货导致收入确认错期，因此我们判断欧洲收入表现或有承压。Matters:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 7.01 billion yuan, an increase of 23.2% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.47 billion yuan, up 8.2% year on year. Looking at a single quarter, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, and net profit to mother of 0.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4%.
Commentary:
Revenue recognition in Europe was disrupted due to erroneous revenue recognition, and revenue growth decelerated month-on-month. 24 Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 7.01 billion yuan, +23.2% year over year, of which single Q3 revenue was 2.59 billion yuan, +11.9% year over year. The revenue growth rate is still decelerating from month to month. Looking at the subregion, the performance of the sweeper category improved month by month in the third quarter. According to Aowei Cloud Network data, 24Q3 domestic sweeper category sales were +15.4% year-on-year. Considering that Stone's market share continues to increase driven by new products such as the P20 Pro, and the development of channels such as Douyin, we expect the company's domestic sales revenue growth rate to be superior to the industry. In terms of overseas markets, the company accelerated the expansion of offline channels such as Target and Best Buy in the US, compounded by Amazon's Prime Day promotion in the third quarter. We expect revenue performance to grow at a high rate. The sales model of European market companies gradually changed from distribution agents to self-management. In the past, the sales model required early shipping during the fourth quarter promotion season, so some revenue was confirmed until Q3. Under the self-management model, the company did not need to prepare goods in advance, causing revenue recognition errors, so we judge that European revenue performance may be under pressure.
Performance is weak, and profitability is under pressure. 24Q1-Q3 achieved net profit of 1.47 billion yuan, or +8.2% year over year, of which net profit from single Q3 was 0.35 billion yuan, or -43.4% year over year. Performance was clearly under pressure.
On the one hand, the average price declined due to the company's broadening of the product price band in the third quarter. On the other hand, the company's accounting standards were also adjusted (after-sales expenses were adjusted from sales expenses to operating costs), resulting in gross margin of -5.2 pcts to 53.9% year-on-year in 24Q3. In terms of cost ratio, 24Q3 company's sales/management/R&D/finance rate was 26.2%/3.8%/8.9%/-0.5%, +6.9/+0.6 pct year-on-year, respectively. Among them, the sales expense ratio increased significantly, mainly due to the company's increased domestic and foreign market expansion and investment during the promotion season. Under the combined influence, the company's 24Q3 net margin -13.3pcts year-on-year to 13.6%.
The bottom line of operations has passed, and expectations for the fourth quarter have improved. Although short-term reporting pressure is high in the context of increased competition in the industry, the company's strategic adjustments have been effective, and subsequent operations are expected to recover for the better. First, after the internal organizational structure was adjusted, the strategic style of play was more proactive. The accelerated development of offline channels in the US led to continued high revenue growth. The domestic Douyin and offline markets also showed good growth, and the adjustment was beginning to bear fruit. Second, the pressure on the European market is mainly due to revenue confirmation issues. Although market competition has intensified due to increased overseas investment from competitors, Stone's reliance on first-hand publishing bureau advantages and high brand recognition have not been significantly affected. We judge that the company's self-operated channel performance is still impressive. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, despite an increase in the company's expense investment, domestic and foreign promotion nodes are expected to boost revenue performance, and profitability is expected to rise steadily as the scale effect of the acceleration in revenue is diluted.
Investment advice: Short-term operations are under pressure, and catalytic sales are expected to improve in the future. We adjusted the 24/25/26 EPS forecast to 11.73/13.52/15.91 yuan (previous value 13.59/16.25/19.15 yuan), and the corresponding PE was 20/17/15 times. Referring to the DCF valuation method, we adjusted the target price to 280 yuan, corresponding to 21 times PE in 25 years, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Demand for categories falls short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuate, and industry competition intensifies.
