Overnight, bitcoin once retraced to near the 30-day moving average of 66.9k, and it is highly unlikely that bitcoin will break through in the next few days, as funds tend to be conservative in such sensitive moments.

Before the election, Trump was leading, but since the end of last month, American news suddenly began to promote the greater possibility of Harris winning. Under the influence of the news media, the market's bets on Trump's victory decreased.

Now the election results are already unclear. In my opinion, who wins is not important for us. What's important is how it will impact the crypto market. There are only two possible outcomes, Trump or Harris.

In the past few months during Trump's active election campaigning, bitcoin rose from a low of $49,000 to $73,000 a few days ago. Altcoins and meme coins were also affected by this news, experiencing significant rallies each month. Recently, due to a reversal in events, bitcoin has slightly pulled back, while altcoins and meme coins plummeted. This is a normal emotional reaction to the expectation of 'Trump's defeat'.

So, how will Trump and Harris coming to power affect the future market trends in the crypto market?

If it were not for the recent 'reversal news', prices should have risen at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, breaking historical highs in the short term after the election, with altcoins rising as well, leading to a massive sell-off afterward. However, with the appearance of the 'news of Trump's defeat', the market preemptively digested this. So, if Trump wins, the market should quickly rebound to pre-decline levels. Now, if he wins, it would be unexpected, and the market will quickly return to its previous position, meaning that the entry opportunity will be in the next two days.CandlestickIf Trump and Harris take office, how will it impact the future trends in the crypto market?

"Harris wins" is not a major bearish news.

First of all, the Harris campaign team has also accepted cryptocurrency donations, with XRP company reportedly donating 20 million US dollars. However, Harris has not publicly expressed much support for cryptocurrencies, so the market expects Trump to be better in the cryptocurrency field.

If we take history as a guide, Bitcoin may surpass $100,000 after the election.

Compared to previous cycles, BTC is undervalued, measured from the cycle low or halving.

As we await the results of Tuesday and Wednesday's elections, the market will continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the election will completely determine the price trend. However, once the situation stabilizes, if the pattern of previous votes is repeated, Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a significant rebound.

Bitcoin was created in 2009 and is about to experience its fourth election. Data from the previous three elections shows that the largest cryptocurrency always rises afterwards, never falling back to the price on election day. If this trend repeats, the BTC price should peak approximately one year later.

2012

During the election held on November 5, 2012, Bitcoin was around $11. The cycle's peak occurred in November 2013, when prices surged by nearly 12,000%, with Bitcoin rising to over $1,100.

In 2016.

Fast forward four years. In the first week of November, the price of bitcoin was around 700 US dollars. It reached a peak of around 18,000 US dollars in December 2017, appreciating by about 3,600%.

In 2020.

After the most recent vote, the election in November 2020 coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic. Bitcoin rose by 478% a year later, reaching a market top of around $69,000.

After each event, with bitcoin's price much higher than four years ago, the magnitude of the jumps has decreased, providing diminishing returns. The percentage decrease between the first and second numbers is 70%. Between the second and third, it is 87%.

If we continue the trend and assume that this time the decline will be around 90%, this means a post-election rebound of approximately 47.8%. This would bring bitcoin to around $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The election may produce a dark horse candidate!

DOGE

DOGE, the first meme coin among high market cap cryptos. DOGE has taken on a political hue, related to Musk's support for Trump. On August 20th, Musk tweeted about creating a "Department of Government Efficiency", abbreviated as D.O.G.E, a concept proposed by the DOGE community. Trump responded that if elected, he would establish this department, audit government finances, and reduce waste, which would then link DOGE's price to the election.

It now has a market cap of 25.5 billion, with a price fluctuation of +48% in nearly 14 days, driven by Musk's tweets and Trump's campaigning.