This week can be considered a super week, with the election results + interest rate cut in the USA. After the dust settles, if BTC breaks out again, it is probably a true breakthrough. At that time, pay attention to whether the open interest and trading volume also increase synchronously. If they do, it is a confirmation signal. When breaking through 70,000 and 74,000 again, it is a good opportunity to establish/initiate positions or add positions.
Today's market analysis of BTC: There are no changes on the daily and weekly charts, the daily level indicators are still at high levels and need to be corrected. The weekly trend is upward, on the 4-hour chart, it continues to move downwards like yesterday, showing signs of decreasing volume and falling. There is a demand for a slight rebound on the 4-hour chart.
Currently, most people are in a wait-and-see mode, as can be seen from the recent fluctuations. Wait for the results of the U.S. presidential election tomorrow, then follow the market direction for trading.
Market Perspective
Today's bullish news: The Donald Trump concept sector rose again last night, doge also rose today, bets on Trump's victory on Polymarket have reached 60%, and Musk's seven polls are leading by far.
Today's bearish news: Mt. Gox in Mentougou transferred 32,371 bitcoins, about $2.18 billion. Yesterday, large-cap ETFs saw a net outflow of 8,427 coins.
The market reflects the market dynamics first, and it is often the opposite. Xianxian believes that Trump is likely to take office, resulting in a continuous decline and the release of various bearish news to make people panic before the U.S. announces the results, then the market rallies after taking office. If Harris takes office, the market will definitely keep rising before, then sharply drop after she takes office.
Only in this way can we maximize profits. Although the election is fiercely competitive, it is ultimately driven by the backing of the capital.
Xiānxiǎn needs to remind the little ones that today is the US election day. Due to the time difference, it will start in the evening. However, the election results will not be immediate, it will take 3 months, and the final confirmation will be in January! Therefore, Xiānxiǎn believes that no matter who is elected, there will be a midterm decline!
Here is the detailed schedule:
November 6th (Wednesday)
- 08:30-10:00: Seven swing states will complete the vote count during this period, which is early in the Asian trading session. It is expected that the market trend will see a wave of climax.
- 09:00: Pennsylvania completes the vote count. Both Trump and Harris chose to campaign in this state on the last day before the election.
- 10:00: Iowa completes the vote count (with 6 electoral votes). Trump has won this state in the past two elections.
- 13:00: This will be a key moment that could witness market volatility. By this time, the voting situation will be mostly determined, but if the contest is close, it will take longer to wait. This will be another highly anticipated moment. Most of the global market fluctuations occur in the first few hours after the results are announced.
Watch more and move less, wait for the other shoe to drop.
Dates worth noting after election day:
November 6th to December 11th: States certify election results
December 17th: The Electoral College meets to cast the formal votes.
January 6th, 2025: The US Congress convenes to tally and certify the Electoral College votes.
January 20, 2025: The elected President of the USA officially takes the oath of office.
Finally,
Manage your positions according to your own risk preferences, continue to gradually allocate large positions to bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market never lacks hot news or events, just like no one cares anymore about the bitcoin halving event, no one cares about countries selling bitcoin, and no one cares about whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates... Maybe in a few months, nobody will care who the President of the USA is.
Hot market news or events always appear in front of retail investors at the most appropriate time. Let's not be disturbed by various news and disrupt our own plans and strategies. The only thing we should be concerned about is: Do you currently hold bitcoin, and is your bitcoin increasing or decreasing!
