In 2016, the morning after the US election day, the world already knew that Trump had won the presidential election. And in 2020, after Tuesday's election day, it was not until Saturday that Biden's victory was officially announced.

This year, both scenarios are possible, depending on the intensity of the campaign. If the two sides are only separated by a few thousand votes in a few states, we may experience a long wait similar to 2020. But if one candidate substantially surpasses the current polls (this year's polls show the closest race in years), the result may be announced earlier. Before that, analyst Justin Low from the financial website Forexlive pointed out that the first exit polls of the election will end at 07:00 on the 6th in Beijing time, and the final exit polls will end at 14:00 on the 6th in Beijing time. At that time, we can pay attention to the exit polls to get an early insight into the US election results.

At midnight on November 5, Eastern Time in the USA, voters in the small town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, were the first to cast their votes, marking the official start of the 60th US presidential election. Subsequently, the town announced the results of the 6 registered voters, with Harris and Trump tied at 3 votes each.

What happened in 2020?

The 2020 election was held on Tuesday, November 3, but in the key seven states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - results were not announced the next morning.

The Associated Press announced on Wednesday that the electorates of Michigan and Wisconsin were in favor of Biden, bringing him close to the threshold to win the majority of the Electoral College votes, but not yet reaching it. Due to the historic high number of mail-in ballots caused by the pandemic, it took longer to count the mail-in ballots, causing anxious wait across the United States and the globe for the gradual announcement of results over the next three days.

It was not until Saturday, November 7, local time, that major news outlets confirmed Biden's win in Pennsylvania and the presidency. While the results for Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina were announced later, the overall results were disclosed before noon on Saturday.

Why is it difficult to confirm trends on election night?

On election night, the 'red-blue mirage' in different states often confuses the election situation, meaning that some states will first count mail-in ballots, while others will count in-person votes first. This difference in counting methods leads to uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican votes, sometimes showing one candidate leading, but then another candidate catching up swiftly.

Does this mean there is a problem?

Although Trump has used this 'mirage' phenomenon to support his claims of fraud, and according to analysts, he and his allies risk doing so again, the final results remain unchanged. Initial data is only temporarily incomplete and becomes clearer gradually after a few days.

Prior to 2020, Americans were used to knowing the election results on election night, with the exception of 2000. However, modern U.S. election vote counting has never been completed in a single day. Before the pandemic, news institutions like the AP usually had enough information on election night to announce the winner, but this did not mean all results were fully counted.

The significant change in 2020 is the substantial increase in mail-in voting, with different parties promoting different voting methods, making the data obtained on election night insufficient for reliable predictions in intense campaigns.

What's different this year?

This year, mail-in and early voting are expected to no longer heavily favor the Democratic Party, as more Republicans are also opting for these methods. Additionally, some states, including Michigan, have changed laws to allow election workers to start processing mail-in ballots before election day to speed up the counting process.

However, the differences among the various parties in the different voting methods are expected to persist, and many states have not changed the relevant rules, so the overall situation is not expected to be significantly different.

When is the earliest we can know the results?

The seven key states that will have the greatest impact on the presidential election results will close polling stations from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. Eastern Time in the USA (8 a.m. to 11 a.m. on November 6 in Peking time). With the release of state statistics, the final results are expected to be announced as early as around 12 p.m. in Peking time.

After Georgia closes polling stations at 7 p.m. (8 p.m. on November 6 in Peking time) and North Carolina closes them after 7:30 p.m. (8:30 p.m. on November 6 in Peking time), the initial winning trends will gradually emerge. If Harris performs well in these states, it may mean that she does not have to rely entirely on the slow-counting "blue wall" states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Conversely, if Trump wins these two southern battleground states, Harris still has the potential to win through the "blue wall" states, but the announcement of the results will be later.

Polling stations in Michigan and Pennsylvania will close at 8 p.m. Eastern Time in the USA (9 p.m. on November 6 in Peking time), Wisconsin and Arizona will close at 9 p.m. (10 p.m. on November 6 in Peking time), and Nevada will close at 10 p.m. (11 p.m. on November 6 in Peking time).

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