标普500指数的11个板块中，金融板块在过去三个月表现排名第二，仅次于能源板块，成为2024年第三表现最佳的板块。KBW纳斯达克银行指数今年上涨25%，而标普500指数上涨了21%。摩根大通和富国银行股价均上涨29%，而美国银行和花旗集团分别上涨了23%和21%。The general election is imminent, and the stock prices of large banks such as J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are rising strongly. Analysts believe that this trend may suggest that Trump has a slight advantage in the election.
Major bank stocks such as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) experienced strong gains ahead of the election, which some believe indicates that former President Donald Trump is expected to win slightly. Currently, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are on equal footing in key swing states.
Analysts pointed out that if Trump succeeds in re-election, he may resume more friendly regulation of Wall Street, which may motivate banksmergers and acquisitionsActivities and rewards, particularly in terms of easing some of the regulatory restrictions during the Biden administration. Research analyst Gary Tenner and his team at D.A. Davidson wrote in Monday's report: “Bank stocks and the wider market, including treasury bonds, seem to be predicting a higher probability of Trump winning the election.”
Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, the financial sector ranked second in performance over the past three months, after the energy sector, making it the third best performing sector in 2024. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index is up 25% this year, while the S&P 500 is up 21%. Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo both rose 29%, while Bank of America and Citigroup rose 23% and 21%, respectively.
However, market signals also have their limitations. Some analysts believe that regardless of the election results, bank stocks will perform well in the long run. Analysts pointed out that if Harris wins the election, it may have a short-term negative reaction to the market, but this impact may be short-lived. Furthermore, although some investment bankers claim that the Biden administration's antitrust policies hinder the process of potential mergers and acquisitions, no bank mergers and acquisitions have been rejected during Biden's tenure.
Analysts at D.A. Davidson said that even if Harris wins the election, the fundamentals of the banking industry will still improve in the long run.
Analyst Raymond James pointed out in another report that the financial sector's post-election performance often pulls back. Normally, “if the Republican president wins the election, the financial sector will perform well during the election period, but it may recoup some of its gains after taking office.” If the Democratic Party is elected, the opposite is usually the case.
It should be noted that the recent excellent performance of large banks and regional banks is not only a reflection of election expectations. The banking sector is performing steadily, the overall economy is in good shape, and consumer spending is active. Although there are still concerns about inflation, it has declined somewhat, and the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy has provided some buffer for consumers and businesses. Bankers report that capital market activity is resuming.
Barclays Bank analyst Jason Goldberg wrote in a report to clients last week: “We believe the final direction of the economy and interest rates may have an impact on bank stocks more than any potential regulatory changes. However, no matter which party is elected, the future regulatory environment will not be worse than the current one.”
