[Incident] AIA announced a summary of new business for the third quarter: 1) NBV of 3.62 billion US dollars for the first three quarters, +22% year over year (according to fixed exchange rates, same below); of these, NBV was 1.16 billion US dollars in a single quarter, +16% year over year. 2) The NBV margin for the first three quarters was 53.3%, +2.4pct year on year; of these, the Q3 single quarter NBV margin was 52.2%, +0.8pct year on year. 3) The annualized new premium (ANP) for the first three quarters was 6.76 billion dollars, +16% year over year; of these, Q3 was 2.21 billion dollars in a single quarter, +14% year over year.

NBV and product structure: All reporting segments showed positive growth. 1) In Q3, agent channel NBV was +15% year over year; partner channel NBV was +16% year over year. 2) AIA China's Q3 NBV was +9% year-on-year, and both agent and banking insurance channels maintained positive growth, with agent channels +10% year-on-year. We continue to be optimistic that AIA's China Agent Channel's “Best Agent” strategy has played a central role in the company's new business and the new growth points brought by the banking insurance channel. 3) AIA Hong Kong's Q3 NBV was +24% year over year, mainly benefiting from the local customer base NBV +28% year over year and the NBV of visitors from mainland China +20% year over year. Among them, agent channels and banking insurance channels all achieved outstanding growth, but retail financial advisory and brokerage channels declined year-on-year. 4) AIA Thailand experienced a slight slowdown in market demand due to repricing of medical insurance products, but still achieved positive NBV growth in the Q3 single quarter. AIA Singapore's NBV grew by double digits year over year, with unit-linked long-term savings products being the main driver of growth.

AIA Malaysia focuses on selling traditional insurance products and unit-linked products. NBV also achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in the Q3 single quarter. ASEAN's total NBV in a single quarter was +8% year-on-year in Q3.

Manpower: Continue to adhere to the “best agent” strategy. 1) The number of active agents in Q3 was +9% year-on-year, with a double-digit increase in the number of newly hired agents. 2) AIA China's active agents and agent production capacity increased year-on-year in Q3.

Business expansion: AIA China has been approved to establish branches in Anhui and Shandong. We continue to be optimistic about AIA China's expansion in the mainland. The continued expansion of AIA China's footprint will provide strong business support for the company's future performance.

Continue to be optimistic about the development potential of AIA China, with an “superior to the market” rating. With the continuous development of new branches in mainland China and strong growth in Hong Kong, China, we are optimistic that AIA's performance will improve further. The current stock price corresponds to 1.2x 2024E PEV. We believe that the current valuation is undervalued and the margin of safety is high. The company enjoys a valuation premium compared to peers. Referring to the comparable company valuation range and the company's historical valuation range, we give the company 1.5 x 2024E PEV, which corresponds to a reasonable 2024E value of $9.67, or HK$75.45. Based on the comprehensive absolute valuation method (assessed value method) and reference comparable company valuation (including value multiples), we believe that the reasonable value range for the company is HK$75.45-88.35, giving it an “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning: Long-term interest rates are trending downward, equity market fluctuations, and new premiums are under pressure.