According to the ZhuTong Finance APP, at the close of US stocks on Monday, mosaic company (MOS.US), the largest comprehensive fertilizer producer in the USA, saw a rare surge of over 5%, with a peak increase of over 8%, leading all component stocks of the large cap benchmark S&P 500 index. Since the first half of 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a shortage of fertilizers and a surge in fertilizer prices, it has been rare to see such a sharp rise in Mosaic's stock price. Canadian fertilizer production giant Nutrien (NTR.US) rose by 5% at the close, with a peak increase of over 6.5% during trading. One of the largest nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers in the USA, CF Industries (CF.US), saw an increase of over 3% at one point, ultimately closing with a 2.8% gain.

Since the record high set by the fertilizer sector in the US stock market during the first half of 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there have been few occasions of similar upward trends. The main reason for the surging fertilizer stocks on Monday is that media reports indicated Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko proposed coordination with Russian fertilizer manufacturers to reduce potassium fertilizer production by about 10%, in order to increase the market price of such fertilizer products. Both Russia and Belarus are major global fertilizer producers and exporters, holding significant production and export shares in global potassium, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers.

According to reports, Lukashenko, during a meeting with the newly appointed CEO of the top Belarusian potassium fertilizer producer Belaruskali, Andrey Rabikov, stated: "Everyone will understand that this is a very expensive product, and you need to pay the appropriate amount for it." He also requested Rabikov to follow up on his proposal after discussions with some Russian fertilizer companies.

According to statistics from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Russia and Belarus together control up to 40% of global potassium fertilizer exports, and Belarus' Belaruskali potassium fertilizer company has been subject to joint sanctions initiated by the USA and the EU.

It is worth noting that UralKali, the largest potassium fertilizer producer in Russia and one of the world's largest fertilizer producers, has not been formally sanctioned by Western countries, mainly due to its extremely important position in the global fertilizer industry. However, some EU member states still persist in refusing to import Russian fertilizers.

According to statistics from IFA and FAO, Belarus is the world's fourth-largest exporter of fertilizers, accounting for approximately 10%-12% of the global fertilizer export market, with its fertilizer production concentrated on potassium fertilizers; Russia is the second-largest exporter of fertilizers, occupying approximately 16%-20% of the global market, second only to the largest fertilizer exporter, China. Furthermore, Russia is one of the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer producers and the second-largest potassium fertilizer producer globally. The export volumes of nitrogen and potassium fertilizers are crucial for the global fertilizer market. Therefore, if Russian fertilizer manufacturers, especially potassium fertilizer manufacturers, follow Lukashenko's proposal, it will undoubtedly serve as a strong catalyst for the rise in global fertilizer prices and fertilizer stock prices, which is why the market is closely monitoring the developments in the Russian fertilizer industry. This uncertainty and the expectation of price increases have spread to the secondary market, driving the soaring prices of mosaic company and Nutrien.