#USAElection##GoldTechnicalAnalysis#On Tuesday (November 5th), in the Asian afternoon session, spot gold rose rapidly in the short term, with the price just breaking through $2737 per ounce, rebounding nearly $13 from the earlier intraday low. Chief analyst Valeria Bednarik of FXStreet wrote an article analyzing the technical outlook for gold.
(Source: 24K99) 15-minute chart for spot gold.
The analyst pointed out that the uncertainty of the USA election continues to support the price of gold. Harris has shown momentum in some polls, but overall the election remains tight. The odds for Harris have also slightly increased on some betting websites, with a slight lead on PredictIt, while Polymarket shows that Trump is still more bullish.
Bednarik wrote that the U.S. presidential election intensifies market participants' cautious sentiment. The long-term view on gold tends to be bullish.
On November 5th local time is the official voting day for the usa presidential election. Just after midnight on November 5th eastern time, voters in the small town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire were the first to cast their votes, marking the official start of the 60th usa presidential election.
According to a report from the new york times on Monday local time, right-wing groups in the USA are organizing real-world actions through the instant messaging platform Telegram, urging followers to pay attention to election polls and defend their rights, indicating possible violent unrest after the USA presidential election on Tuesday.
Groups supporting former President Trump have recently issued messages requesting the organization of poll observers to prepare to question the election results in democratic areas. Some have posted photos of armed men, recruiting personnel to defend their rights together; while others spread conspiracy theories, such as if Trump does not win on election day, it is judicial injustice and requires a collective resistance.
A post by the extreme right-wing group 'Proud Boys' in Ohio wrote: 'The day is coming, we can no longer sit on the fence. Either stand with the resistors, or kneel willingly and accept the dictator and oppression.'
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that the driving force for gold this week will be the US elections, and a Fed rate cut is unlikely to cause significant fluctuations, as the Fed may signal a rate cut in line with market expectations.
Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, believes that if Trump wins, gold will perform well because the public may be more worried about the inflation caused by Trump's tariff policy.
Short-term technical outlook for gold
Bednarik wrote, the daily chart shows that the risk of the gold price trend still leans towards the upside. The gold price continues to develop above the bullish moving average line, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) providing dynamic support near $2705.00 per ounce. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs are accelerating upwards well below the above short-term averages, reflecting the strength of the buyers. Finally, the technical indicators have declined slightly but remain far above the midline, implying limited downside potential.
Bednarik added that in the short term, based on the 4-hour chart, the sellers still control the situation. Technical indicators are firmly turning downwards within the negative value level, while the 20-period SMA is accelerating downwards above the current gold price. The 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA maintain an upward bias below the current gold price, but if the gold price falls below the $2730 per ounce region, it may decline again.
(Source: FXStreet)
Valeria Bednarik provides the latest key support and resistance levels for gold price:
Support levels: $2730.00 per ounce; $2718.35 per ounce; $2705.00 per ounce.
Resistance levels: $2747.75 per ounce; $2760.40 per ounce; $2772.50 per ounce.
At 13:39 peking time, spot gold is trading at $2737.16 per ounce.
