On November 5th local time is the official voting day for the usa presidential election. Just after midnight on November 5th eastern time, voters in the small town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire were the first to cast their votes, marking the official start of the 60th usa presidential election.

According to CCTV News, in the small town of Dixville Notch in the state of New Hampshire, USA, 6 registered voters announced the voting results, with 3 votes each for Harris and Trump, resulting in a tie.

It is reported that on that day, the vast majority of polling stations across the United States opened in the morning and remained open until the evening of the 5th. Referring to the election processes in 2016 and 2020, the final results are expected to be announced late on the 5th day (around noon on the 6th Beijing time). According to data from the University of Florida Election Laboratory, as of the morning of November 4th local time, over 78.02 million voters in the US have already cast their early votes.

The current US presidential candidates are Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. The US media generally believe that the 2024 election is the most closely contested presidential election in recent years in the United States. According to the final pre-election poll results released by NBC on the 3rd, Trump and Harris are tied at 49% support each, with only 2% of voters undecided.

On November 4th local time, a survey conducted jointly by "The Hill" and Emerson College in the US showed that the overall support rates for Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, and former President Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, in the key swing states are neck and neck in the US election.

Main policy proposals of presidential candidates

According to polls, the support rates for the Republican presidential candidate Trump and the Democratic presidential candidate Harris remain close. The states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are crucial, and the voting outcomes in these three states will ultimately determine the winning candidate.

A comparison of the main economic policies between Harris and Trump.

It is worth noting that on election day, in addition to electing the President and Vice President, there will also be congressional elections where voters will elect the 119th U.S. Congress, including the Senate and the House of Representatives.

The Senate consists of 100 Senators, with seats evenly distributed among states (excluding the District of Washington D.C.), with 2 senators per state. The current Senate has 51 Democratic senators (including 3 independent senators) and 49 Republican senators, with Democrats holding a slight majority. According to the U.S. Constitution, Senators serve a 6-year term, with approximately one-third of the seats up for election every two years, meaning that 34 seats will be up for reelection in 2024. Among these, 23 seats belong to the Democrats and only 11 seats to the Republicans.

Doing well in the economy is the key.

In the days leading up to the election on November 5th, various economic indicators in the USA continue to show positive trends: inflation remains low, private job creation surpasses expectations, pending home sales data keeps emerging, consumer sentiment rises to optimistic levels, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grows rapidly, although slightly below some expectations.

According to Morning Consult's data, since Joe Biden took office in January 2021, the S&P 500 index has risen by over 50%, and has increased by 24% so far this year.

Despite the positive macroeconomic data, voters still express dissatisfaction with the economy. A poll in October showed that 44% of American adult respondents believed that the economy might collapse entirely.

Both Harris and Trump are aware of this, positioning themselves as the best helmsmen of the US economy. At the same time, both candidates are striving to portray themselves as people deviating from the status quo. In their election campaigns, they have both promised a series of policy proposals, pledging to create a new economic future for Americans.

Trump promises to levy universal tariffs on imported goods from all countries, implement a comprehensive immigration expulsion plan, deepen corporate tax cuts, and more. However, many economists have pointed out that if his policy proposals are implemented, they could potentially trigger major shockwaves and lead to a possible market collapse.

Harris advocates for raising corporate tax rates, enforcing a federal ban on retail companies 'price gouging,' and providing subsidies and tax breaks for housing development, child care, and more, which has also faced criticism.

UBS Group: Global financial markets enter turbulent times.

Sergio Ermotti, President of UBS, has publicly stated that regardless of who ultimately takes over the White House, the election results will impact global financial markets.

"The outlook for the fourth quarter is clearly affected by uncertainties in macroeconomics and geopolitics. The US election will certainly not be an uneventful event," Ermotti said.

"We do expect that there will be some volatility in the markets regardless of who wins and what the outcome is. How investors will react remains to be seen," Ermotti added.

UBS Group stated that the United States holds the world's most important reserve currency and also has the largest market cap securities exchange. Currently, the tension of the election and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led investors to retreat to gold. At the same time, another importantIts price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.aspect is that the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds continues to rise.

"These results are not positive growth for us. During Trump's presidency, we believe that inflation was caused by his focus on immigration and tariffs. However, we have not seen any particularly positive growth results. That's why bonds have been performing like this for so long," said Arun Sai, Senior Multi-Asset Strategist at Swiss Patek Asset Management. He also pointed out that the market has more or less priced in bonds during Trump's presidency.

Editor/Somer